NFL: Predictions for Week 6

NFL Week 6: Preview & Analysis

Every week, AccuScore’s computer simulates every game in the NFL 10,000 times to arrive at player and team projections. With week 6 of the 2012 NFL season around the corner, AccuScore has analysis on every game. To see Betting Picks for each of these games rated on a trends-based star system, go to NFL Expert Picks


With Chris Johnson having no success running the ball the Steelers are heavy 75% favorite. If Chris Johnson rushes for more yards than Rashard Mendenhall then the Titans chances improve to 43%. If the Titans also intercept Ben Roethlisberger at least once then Tennessee is the 54% favorite. There is a 66% chance that Chris Johnson averages under 3.0 ypc and if he does the Titans only have an 18% chance of winning. There is even a high 41% chance that Johnson averages under 2.0 ypc which has become fairly routine this year.


Matt Ryan is throwing nearly 4 times as many TDs as INTs in simulations and the Falcons are 73% favorites. In the simulations where Oakland wins Ryan completes just 55% and averages nearly 1 INT per sim. Carson Palmer is averaging 1.6 INTs per sim. There is a 24% chance that Palmer has no INTs and if he does the Raiders' chances improve to 43%. If Palmer throws no INTs and Darren McFadden averages over 4.5 ypc then Oakland is the 52% favorite.


Kansas City ran the ball extremely well vs Baltimore and if not for their awful turnovers they might have won by 7 or more points (instead of losing). Tampa Bay is the 54% favorite even though Josh Freeman is throwing 1.2 INTs per sim vs just 1.1 TDs and Doug Martin is averaging just 3.2 ypc. In simulations where TB wins Freeman averages 1.3 TDs and just 0.8 INTs, but in simulated losses Freeman averages just 0.9 TDs vs 1.6 INTs. Jamaal Charles can lead KC to victory. If he has 100+ yards rushing then KC is the 70% favorite.


The Jets are 56% home favorites. If Mark Sanchez throws more TD passes than INTs the Jets see their chances jump to 65%, but if he has more INTs than TDs the Jets chances drop to 28%. Andrew Luck has a 23% chance of passing for 250 or more yards and 2 or more TDs. If he does the Colts are 62% favorites. There is a 34% chance that Luck throws multiple interceptions and if he does the Colts see their chances drop to just 30%.


Trent Richardson is forecasted for a strong game with nearly 80 rushing yards and a 54% of rushing for a TD. The Browns are 44% underdogs, but when Richardson rushes for 1 TD or more the Browns become the 59% favorite. If the Bengals' Benjarvus Green-Ellis out rushes Trent Richardson then the Bengals are 77% favorites, but if Richardson gets the advantage then Cleveland ist he 68% favorite. Brandon Weeden is averaging more INTs (1.2) than TDs (1.0). There is a 33% chance he throws more TDs than INTs and if he does Cleveland becomes the 62% favorite.


Le Sean McCoy is putting up huge numbers vs the struggling Lions defense. McCoy is averaging over 120 total rushing and receiving yards and the Eagles are 56% favorites. If Detroit holds McCoy to under 4.5 ypc and forces at least 2 Eagles turnovers then Detroit becomes the 58% favorite. Both teams have struggled with turnovers and there is only a 1.5% chance that neither team commits a turnover. If the teams are mistake free in this area Philadelphia is the 60% favorite. There is a 11% chance that both teams have 3 or more turnovers and if the game is sloppy the Lions are the 52% favorite.


Both defenses are in the top half of the league in points allowed and yards allowed. The Dolphins are 69% favorites because the Rams, without WR Danny Amendola, are only averaging 14 points per sim. There is a 38% chance the Rams score 17 or more points and if they do their chances improve to 61%. Steven Jackson is only averaging 3 ypc. If he averages 5 or more ypc and has a rushing TD then the Rams are 52% favorites. Reggie Bush is forecasted for a big game with 90 rushing yards. If he has 75+ yards and 1 or more rushing TD then Miami is the 87% favorite.


The Ravens run defense was demolished in the first half vs Kansas City, but was better in the second half. The defense is having a bounce back game holding DeMarco Murray to under 50 rushing yards per sim and as a result the Ravens are 68% favorites. If Murray has at least 50 rushing yards on 5.0+ ypc the Cowboys' chances improve to 42%. If Tony Romo also throws no INTs then Dallas is the 54% favorite. There is a 28% chance that Romo has multiple INTs and if he does Dallas only has a 16% chance. If the Ravens offense is balanced with Joe Flacco having at least 250 passing yards and Ray Rice at least 80 rushing yards the Ravens are heavy 87% favorites.


The Bills defense has been record setting bad but Arizona's top 2 RBs are out. Even though Arizona is only averaging 3.7 ypc as a team the Cardinals are 52% favorites. The Bills are averaging 2.7 turnovers per simulation. If they commit no more than 1 turnover then Buffalo is the 55% favorite. There is a high 28% chance the Bills have 4 or more turnovers and if they do Arizona is the 59% favorite. Kevin Kolb has been sacked at a very high rate and Buffalo spent a lot of money in the off-season to upgrade their pass rush. If Kolb is sacked at least 4 times Buffalo is the 58% favorite, but if he is sacked under 4 times Arizona is the 61% favorite.


The Patriots re-charged rushing offense is averaging nearly 120 yards for a +10 yard advantage over Seattle's rushing offense and the Patriots are 69% favorites. Seattle's defense plays very well at home. If they hold New England to under 3.5 ypc and the potent Seahawks pass rush sacks Tom Brady at least 4 times then Seattle is the 59% favorite. If Brady gets rid of the ball quickly and is sacked no more than twice then the Patriots are the 72% favorite. Russell Wilson is averaging more INTs (1.5) than TD passes (1.1). There is a 29% chance Wilson has more TDs than INTs and if he does Seattle gets the slight 51% edge.


The 49ers are 66% favorites and there is only a 10% chance that returner Kyle Williams fumbles the ball. The 49ers are getting the edge in turnovers committing 0.5 a turnover less per sim. If the Giants get the edge in turnover margin and the offense can average at least 4.0 ypc then NY is the 55% favorite. However, there is a 37% chance that the 49ers defense holds NY to under 4.0 ypc and the 49ers get the edge in turnover margin. In these simulations the 49ers win 70% of the time. Eli Manning is averaging 285 yards and 1.7 TDs. If Manning has 300+ yards the Giants' chances only go up slightly to 36%, but if Manning has no INTs and 300+ yards then the Giants are 51% favorites.


Even if RGIII can play Minnesota is getting the 55% edge on the road. The Vikings offense is doing an excellent job not turning the ball over and Minnesota is only averaging 1.5 turnovers per sim. If Christian Ponder throws an INT and completes under 60% of his passes then Minnesota is the 36% underdog. If he completes over 60% and has no INTs (a 62% chance) then the Vikings are 60% favorites. Both teams are running effectively with the Vikings averaging 140 team rushing yards vs 120 for Washington. If Washington gets the edge rushing the ball then Washington is the 77% favorite.


The Packers are averaging just 75 total rushing yards per sim and are slight 49% underdogs vs undefeated Houston. Houston is averaging 156 rushing yards per sim with Arian Foster dominating with another 100+ rushing yard game (in 60% of simulations). There is just a 20% chance Green Bay out-rushes Houston but if they do GB is the 85% favorite. Aaron Rodgers is putting up big numbers with 290 passing yards and 2 TDs, but he is also getting sacked 4.5 times per sim. If the Texans sack him 5 or more times Houston is the 64% favorite, but if Rodgers is sacked under 3 times then the Packers are 55% favorites.


Ryan Mathews has played well recently while Willis McGahee made two huge errors (dropped pass, fumble) vs the Patriots. The edge in running the ball for San Diego (+21 rushing yards, +0.8 ypc, and +0.5 rushing TDs) in simulations is giving the Chargers a 60% edge. Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers are both putting up good numbers with 280 yards, 2 TD passes and under 1 INT. If Denver averages more rushing yards per carry than San Diego then the Broncos get the 53% edge. If Peyton Manning has 300+ yards, 2 or more TDs and no INTs then the Broncos are the 52% favorite.