NFL Week 13: Preview & Analysis
AccuScore’s Super computer simulated every game for the upcoming Week 13 of the 2012 NFL season 10,000 times to make predictions on teams and players. The Super Computer also has Betting Picks against the spread and on totals for each game listed below. To see these award winning NFL picks, visit the NFL Expert Picks page
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Drew Brees needs to avoid interceptions to upset the Falcons. Atlanta is the 51% home favorite, but if Brees has no more than 1 INT then Saints win 58% of the time. But if Brees has 2 or more INTs then the Saints only have a 30% chance. Both Matt Ryan and Drew Brees are projected for well over 300 passing yards but Atlanta is averaging 120 rushing yards per sim vs just 75 for the Saints. If Atlanta rushes for more yards than the Saints they are 67% favorites. There is only a 40% chance the Saints rush for more yards than Atlanta but if they do the Saints have a 79% chance of winning.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS
If the Seahawks starting corners are able to play then Chicago is only a 52% favorite, but if the suspensions are upheld the Bears are 60% favorites. The baseline simulations have Michael Bush as the primary RB with Matt Forte leaving last week's game with an ankle injury. If Bush can average at least 4.0 ypc the Bears are solid 65% favorites. The Seahawks have an excellent pass rush and if they sack Jay Cutler at least 4 times and their starting corners play the Seahawks are 60% favorites. But if Seattle does not pressure Cutler and sack him under 4 times Seattle only has a 35% chance.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Aaron Rodgers will have his full complement of receivers this week and are 79% favorites at home. The Packers are only averaging 69 total team rushing yards while the Vikings are projected for 130. If Adrian Peterson dominates with 100+ yards and at least 1 rushing TD and the Vikings defense sacks Aaron Rodgers 4 or more times then Minnesota is the 55% favorite. If Peterson is held under 100 rushing yards then Minnesota only has a 12% chance because there is only a 29% chance that Christian Ponder throws more TDs than INTs.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Sam Bradford is projected for a better completion percentage and more passing yards than Colin Kaepernick, but Kaepernick is averaging more TD passes (1.5 to 1.1) and fewer INTs (0.6 vs 0.7) and SF is the 74% favorite. The 49ers defense is holding the Rams to just 3.5 ypc and are sacking Sam Bradford 3.5 times per sim. If the Rams can average over 4.5 ypc and Bradford is not sacked more than twice then Saint Louis is the 52% favorite. There is only a 20% chance that the Rams out rush the 49ers but if they do the Rams are 65% favorites.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ NEW YORK JETS
If Ryan Lindley starts again for the Cardinals the Jets are solid 67% home favorites winning by a TD. Even though Mark Sanchez is projected for just a 52% completion percentage and he is averaging more INTs than TDs (1.0 INTs, 0.8 TDs) he is doing much better than Lindley who is projected for 43% CMP, 185 yards, 0.6 TD passes and 2.0 INTs. There is only an 11% chance Lindley has more TDs than INTs bt if he does the Cardinals are 66% favorites. Both teams are projected for around 100 rushing yards. If the Jets rush for more yards then they are heavy 83% favorites.
CARDOLINA PANTHERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Brady Quinn is completing a decent 60% of his passes, but he has a 37% chance of throwing 2 or more INTs and if he does the Chiefs only have a 24% chance. But if Quinn has no more than 1 INT then KC actuallly has a 52% chance of winning. Cam Newton is only projected for 215 passing yards and 1 passing TD, but he is averaging over 50 rushing yards and scoring a rushing TD in 45% of simulations. If Newton has 1 or more rushing and 1 or more passing TD then Carolina is the heavy 78% favorite. If Jamaal Charles can have a big game with at least 75 rushing yards on 5.0+ ypc then KC is the 59% favorite.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ DETROIT LIONS
The Lions are a major disappointment and the Colts are having a great season but the Lions are the 70% home favorite this week. The Colts defense has allowed 19 Pass TDs vs just 5 INTs and Matthew Stafford is averaging over 2 TDs and just 0.6 INTs per sim. If the Colts hold Stafford to no more than 2 TDs, intercept him at least once, and get at least 3 sacks the Colts are the 60% favorite. But if Stafford has more TDs than INTs and Andrew Luck throws 1 or more INTs (he is averaging 1.2 INTs per sim) the Lions are 82% favorites.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ BUFFALO BILLS
The Bills are solid 67% favorites with Jacksonville not expected to have Maurice Jones-Drew back. Without him the Bills have an edge in both passing and rushing yards. If the Jags can out rush the Bills then Jacksonville is the 55% favorite. If the Bills rush for more yards they are the heavy 84% favorite. Chad Henne has put up some big numbers the past 2 weeks but he is only projected for 205 yards and 1 TD this week. If he has a big game with 250+ yards, 2 or more TDs and no INTs then Jacksonville is the 54% favorite.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Patriots have broken records with their scoring in recent weeks but Miami is holding them to just 27 points per simulation. The Patriots are still the solid 66% road favorite. If the Dolphins can run the ball well with over 5.0 ypc and Ryan Tannehill does not throw more than 1 INT then Miami actually is the 59% favorite. But if the Patriots hold Miami to under 4.5 ypc and intercept Tannehill two or more times Miami only has a 15% chance. If Tom Brady dominates again with 300+ yards, 2+ TDs and no INTs then New England is the heavy 80% favorite.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Houston is the heavy 71% road favorite. The pass defense is holding opponents to under 54% completion percentage and in simulations they are holding Jake Locker to just a 53% completion percentage. Locker has a 19% chance of completing over 60% of his passes and if he does the Titans' chances jump from 29 to 47%. If Locker does this and Chris Johnson can average at least 4.5 ypc then the Titans are 59% favorites. However, if Arian Foster has another 100+ rushing yards (a 50% chance) then Houston is the heavy 86% favorite. But there is a 31% chance that Chris Johnson has more rushing yards than Arian Foster and if he does the Titans are 58% favorites.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Denver is the 66% home favorite with Peyton Manning projected for a big game. His simulation averages are 313 yards, 2.7 TDs and just 1 INT. If Tampa Bay can hold Manning under 300 yards, under 2 pass TDs and intercept him at least once then Tampa Bay is the 55% favorite. Doug Martin is forecasted for a strong 88 yards on 4.7 ypc. If he has at least 100 yards on 5.0+ ypc the Bucs are 51% favorites, but if he has under 100 rushing yards then Tampa Bay only has a 22% chance. Josh Freeman is putting up pretty good numbers with 250 yards, 1.7 TDs per sim and just 0.9 INTs. If he has 2 or more TDs and no INTs then Tampa Bay has a 52% chance.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
If Ben Roethlisberger can come back earlier than expected then the Steelers have a 43% chance and are just 2 point underdogs, but if he is out again the Steelers only have an 18% chance losing by 10 points per sim. Joe Flacco has 10 TDs vs just 3 INTs in home games. If he has more pass TDs than INTs then Baltimore is the heavy 78% favorite. If the Steelers can intercept Flacco at least once and hold Ray Rice under 3.0 ypc then Pittsburgh is the 56% favorite. The Steelers do have a 35% chance of rushing for more yards than Baltimore and if they do they are 61% favorites.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Raiders have been terrible for a month but they are the 58% home favorites vs the Browns. The Raiders need Carson Palmer to limit turnovers and if Darren McFadden is back he needs to average at least 4.0 ypc. In the simulations where Palmer has no more than 1 INT and McFadden averages over 4.0 ypc the Raiders win 74% of the time, but when Palmer has 1 or more INT and McFadden under 4.0 ypc the Browns win 55%. Brandon Weeden has a concussion and may not be available, but Colt McCoy is actually projected for nearly the same passer rating as Weeden. If the Browns QBs throw no more than 1 INT and Trent Richardson has a big game with at least 75 rushing yards the Browns are 70% favorites.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
San Diego is specializing in unbelievable home losses from the massive comeback by Denver to the Ray Rice 29 yard 4th down conversion. Despite these horrific performances the Chargers are actually 52% favorites as long as they still put forth maximum effort. Philip Rivers needs to out play Andy Dalton. If Rivers has more passing yards, at least 2 TDs and no more than 1 INT the Chargers are 66% favorites. But if Andy Dalton has more pass TDs than INTs and BenJarvus Green-Ellis averages at least 4.5 ypc the Bengals are heavy 70% favorites.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys are 65% home favorites with Tony Romo projected for nearly 300 yards and a better than 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio. If the Eagles defense sacks Romoo 4 or more times and Romo throws at least 1 INT then Philadelphia has a 58% chance of winning. The Cowboys have been running the ball poorly without DeMarco Murray, but they are expected to have a decent game with 4.3 ypc and over 100 rushing yards. There is a 35% chance that Dallas averages under 3.5 ypc and if they cannot run the ball well then Dallas only has a 50% chance. If the Eagles rush for more yards than Dallas then Philadelphia is the 56% favorite.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Giants demolished Green Bay but unlike the Packers the Redskins run the ball well. Alfred Morris and Robert Griffin III are projected for over 60 rushing yards on 4.0+ ypc and as a result Washington is just a slight 48% home underdog. If both Morris and RGIII have at least 60 rushing yards the Redskins are 76% favorites. But if the Giants hold Washington to under 120 rushing yards the Giants are heavy 77% favorites. Eli Manning had a big 3 TD game but his completion percentage was still just 53% for the game and around 54% for the past 4 games. If Manning can complete 60%+ of his passes the Giants are 55% favorites, but if RGIII completes a higher percentage the Redskins are 62% favorites.