By Rohit Ghosh
As the Washington Redskins get set to host the Detroit Lions in their week three match-up, Robert Griffin III faces the dilemma of seeing his team fall to 0-3. And although Washington coach Mike Shanahan pushed aside the idea of starting Kirk Cousins while RGIII gets back into the flow of things, there's no doubt that this week's game is fairly close to being a must win. The Detroit Lions' offense is more than capable, but their propensity to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties just might give the Redskins defense enough of a break to help get the win.
AccuScore simulated the game 10,000 times. The Washington Redskins are heavy 62.3 percent favorites, with the average score being 29-24. Washington is favored by 1 point and covered that spread in over 60 percent of their simulated wins.
It's no surprise that the Redskins have gone over the point total in the first two games. Their defense has been overly porous, giving up an astounding 71 points and 1,023 total yards against Philadelphia and Green Bay. Washington's secondary has struggled thus far; they will most likely stop the run this week, assuming Bush is out or limited, but will have their hands full with the Matthew Stafford-Calvin Johnson duo. Via AccuScore simulations, there is a 57.3 percent the total combined score goes over 49.
Washington Redskins
The Redskins go as RGIII goes – last year, he rushed for 815 yards and 7 touchdowns. He's carried the ball just nine times this season, rushing for an irrelevant 25 yards. Most important of all, Griffin has yet to run the ball out of the zone-read.
Washington's offense has been sub-par in the first two games, and absolutely horrible in the first half of each game. They have been outscored 50-7 in those first halves. At the same time, keep in mind that they've outscored their opponents 26-0 in the fourth quarters of the first two games.
Assuming that Griffin's knee gets better each week, Washington's offense just might have a bit of an explosion this week as RB Alfred Morris continues to improve with more touches. After a slow start in week 1, Morris ran for 107 yards on 13 carries in week 2 versus Green Bay. He averaged a career-high 8.2 yards per carry.
Things haven't exactly gone as planned for Washington in the first two weeks, but their overall stats indicate that they're on the right track. Via USA Today Sports –"They rank in the top five in the NFL in passing first downs (34), red zone touchdown efficiency (83.3), total touchdowns (7) and passing touchdowns (5)." Look for Washington to finally have a strong start to the game – this is the week that those stats fall into place and they get their first win of the season.
Projected Player Stats
Robert Griffin III: 233 yards (passing), 1 TD, QB rating of 108; 71 yards rushing on 8 carries
Alfred Morris: 97 yards on 20 carries, high probability of rushing in for a TD
Pierre Garcon: 74 yards on 6 receptions
Detroit Lions
Here's an extremely unfortunate fun fact for Detroit: The Lions have never won in Washington, having lost 21 straight times to the Redskins since they moved to the country's capital 1937.
Detroit started the season with a solid 34-24 win in Minnesota. QB Matt Stafford threw for 357 yards with two TDs and one interception. WR Calvin Johnson, who had just 37 yards on four catches in the week 1 win, had 116 yards on six catches with two scores in the team's week two 25-24 loss to the Arizona Cardinals.
The issue with their week two loss had nothing to do with the offense; their defense, however, gave up the final 12 points of the game. After leading for the majority of the game, costly penalties shifted the momentum from Detroit to Arizona. The Lions had eight penalties for 101 yards.
If DT Ndamukong Suh can stay out of trouble, the return of DT Nick Fairley could be the key piece that keeps RGIII and Alfred Morris in check.
The Washington defense has allowed 443 yards to the Eagles and 580 to the Packers. Stafford has to be licking his chops in anticipation of this match-up. The Redskins defense does have a higher probability at an interception than that of Detroit; part of this projection has to do with the amount Detroit passes versus how much Washington likes to run. Either way, the ball will be up for grabs plenty and often.
Projected Player Stats
Matthew Stafford: 297 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, QB rating of 91
Calvin Johnson: 109 yards on 7 receptions, high probability of scoring 1 TD
Reggie Bush: 41 yards on 10 carries; 31 yards on 4 receptions
Prediction
Washington's defense is as unreliable as Detroit's ability to win on the road. I think both offenses have big nights, but the Redskins need this game more than Detroit does. I'll take Washington by 6.
