Al Horford Injury Analysis

By Jonathan Lee

Al Horford entered the NBA as an undersized center, and has developed into a two time All-Star and made the All-NBA Third team last season.  Now the Hawks will likely be without their star player for the rest of the season as Horford torn his left pectoral muscle Wednesday night.  The typical recovery time for such an injury is at least three months.

With Horford, the Hawks were projected for 37.7 wins and were 83 percent likely to make the playoffs.  Without Horford, the Hawks are projected for 34 wins and make the playoffs 64.7 percent of the time.  That means the forward was worth nearly 4 full wins and 18.3 percentage points in playoff probability.

Projected Wins Division % Playoff %
w/ Horford 37.7 11.6% 83%
w/o Horford 34.0 4.7% 64.7%
Difference -3.7 -6.9% -18.3%