2012-13 Top NBA Picks


We are thrilled that the NBA is returning (on-time this year) because our staff 1) love the NBA and 2) our subscribers love our picks. Over the past 2 seasons if you made every point spread, over/under, side value and money line pick you would have hit 55.8% of the time for a massive +8546 profit.

Here are our results for the past 2 seasons:

NBA Picks Against the Spread

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The highlight from 2011-2012 was our excellence on NBA point spreads. We hit on over 54% of our picks. We were also pleased that our NBA point spread picks started hot, stayed hot and ended hot. After the first 5 weeks (Jan 31st) we were 159-133, 54.5% +1270. A month and a half later on March 15th we were 317-269, 54.1% +2110. At the end of the season we were 526-447, 54.1% +3430. Our subscribers who rely on our trends to maximize ROI would have started focusing on ATS picks after the first few weeks, would have kept riding that train and could / should have made a huge profit by avoiding the negative Totals picks.

It’s not surprising that our excellence in ATS picks also translated into excellence in Side Value picks. One thing about Side Values in the NBA is when a team is heavily favored the sportsbooks really put a lot of juice on the heavy favorite. We estimate that our side value picks probably favor the heavy underdog in 9 out of 10 situations. As a result our overall accuracy will be under 50% but can still produce great profits if you like betting on long shots you play Side Value.

Money Line picks were tremendously accurate in 2010-2011 but dipped in 2011-2012. You can see that even at 68.5% accurate you can lose money betting on money lines because the heavy favorites barely pay off. Our NBA Archive is available to subscribers and in it you will see that while our overall Money Line picks were negative if you stuck with betting on games where the home team is an underdog you would have gone 209-111 for a +2022 profit. So make sure you review our betting history to find the best trends and betting systems.

The other obvious lowlight was our 51.1% record n Totals in 2011-2012. This was 100% attributable to the NBA lockout and the negative effect it had on offensive play. The average total in 2010-2011 was 198 points. Last year it was a paltry 192. In the first few weeks game totals were at 189. We were at -3500 as of 2/12/12 but after that point offenses were getting back in sync and our over/under picks generated a +700 unit profit the remainder of the season.

We do these comparisons vs professional Handicappers. While 100% of the competition charges literally 50 to 100 times as much money per pick, we expect to see 50 to 60% of the competition at least generate a modest to significant profit for their customers.

In our review of Vegas Insider’s Handicapper records (these same ‘cappers tend to work with all major pick selling sites) we found a paltry 20% (5 of 25) of them generated a profit. The combined record of these professionals was 3278-2832, 53.6% for -16748.

This is the complete list. Ouch.

NBA Picks Beat Experts

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