Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NC State vs St. Louis Preview: 2014 NCAA Tournament

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Despite getting in to early foul trouble against Xavier, NC State’s T.J. Warren found a way to stay on the floor for the majority of the game as the Wolfpack covered the +4.5 spread to beat the Musketeers 74-59. Warren finished with 25 points and 5 rebounds, just as AccuScore had projected. After shooting nearly 55 percent from the field against Xavier, NC State has a much more defensive-minded foe in No. 5 Saint Louis.

Saint Louis gives up just 61.2 points per game, limiting opponents to 0.91 points per possession – good for sixth in the nation. With a roster led by seniors, Saint Louis should be able to get by NC State based on experience alone. However, momentum could play a factor as Saint Louis enters the tournament having lost four of their past five games.

AccuScore has Saint Louis as solid 67 percent favorites to win. The average score in the simulations is 67-60, showing how highly the simulation data values the Billikens’ ability to lock down their opponents. Saint Louis is currently favored by 2.5 points (-2.5); they are 26-6 straight up (SU) but just 10-19 against the spread (ATS). NC State is 20-12 ATS. Since 1997, when playing on a neutral court, Saint Louis is 14-18 ATS and NC State is 51-30.

Players to Watch

For NC State, how successful they can be in the remainder of the tournament will be determined by the play of T.J. Warren. The ACC Player of the Year averaged 24.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game during the regular season. Against a similarly top-ranked defense like that of Saint Louis, Warren put up 28 points in a 66-63 win over Syracuse last week.

Saint Louis is led by Dwayne Evans (14 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Jordair Jett (13.8 ppg, 4.7 apg) and Rob Loe (10 ppg, 5.5 rpg). All three will have to be at the top of their games Thursday as the Billikens enter the game having scored fewer than 67 points in their last six games.

Offense vs Defense

Saint Louis is No. 9 in the nation in opponent percent of points from three-pointers. Led by 6’1” Jett, the perimeter defense is nothing short of exemplary. Most importantly, Saint Louis holds their opponents to below 40 percent shooting. NC State, on average, shoots nearly 46 percent from the field. To get the win, Saint Louis must contain Warren, who shoots 52.5% FG.