Written by AccuScore Staff

Real Madrid hosts Manchester City

The current odds for this match give Real Madrid a 61.0% chance of winning, Manchester City a 16.0% chance of winning, and the draw a 23.0% chance of occurring. The AccuScore computer tends to disagree.

Manchester City is unbeaten this season and has looked wobbly away from home. However, both of City’s away matches this season were in particularly hostile conditions. Getting 3 points at Stoke City is not an easy ask, and City only managed a draw there last weekend. A trip to Anfield to face Liverpool is possibly the most intimidating environment in the Barclay’s Premier League. Even there, Manchester City came from behind twice to collect a point. This team does not lose often.

Real Madrid has been a rather blunt and uninspired side in the 2012-13 season. With only one win in four league matches, Real Madrid is already 8 points back of Barcelona and struggling to keep the dream of winning La Liga alive. Jose Mourinho’s men continued to crumble with a trip to Sevilla last weekend. There, Angel Di Maria’s poor marking gave Sevilla a well-deserved win. Real Madrid was a poor sight and thoroughly out-played.

Jose will need to get the attention of all his players ahead of this match because Alvaro Negredo and Jesus Navas were easily bypassing the Real Madrid defense last Saturday.

Computer Pick

Split Bet: 50 units on Manchester City to win at 5.760 and 50 units on the draw at 4.210

The value is clearly on Manchester City and the draw. The AccuScore computer gives Manchester City a 26.6% chance of winning compared to oddsmakers who currently give the English Champions only a 16.0% chance of winning. The draw occurs in 24% of simulations, so there is some value compared to the odds which give the draw a 23.0% chance of occurring. The computer still considers Real Madrid winning to be the most likely outcome at 49.4%, but this is significantly lower than the odds at 61.0%. By taking both the draw and the City win, AccuScore calculates that a bettor would have more than 50% of the probable outcomes covered.

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