by Shahan Ahmed 24th Februray, 2012
Well, last week was a 1-2 week, with Udinese unable to manage a win without Antonio Di Natale in the lineup. Nurnberg and Cologne combined for the Over 2.5 goals, but Borussia Monchengladbach limited the losses as they were the biggest value play at 2.33. Still, the overall record is a respectable 40-21 with +2,465 in total profit. On to this week’s action…
This week is a rather special week in European football. In Italy, AC Milan host Juventus for top spot in the league, and Inter Milan and Napoli clash in a match between Champions League representatives. In England, the North London derby between Arsenal and Tottenham is by far the most exciting fixture of the weekend. In Spain, Barcelona and a refreshed Atletico Madrid meet in a league match, and Messi’s recent form suggests Atleti will not come out looking good after this fight. Finally, in Germany, Bayern Munich are in horrible form and must face a Schalke team in top form. Huntelaar scored a Europa League hattrick while Bayern lost to FC Basel. Another poor result for Bayern, and Dortmund may just run away with the Bundesliga altogether.
With the exception of the AC Milan and Juventus match, all the biggest matches of the weekend are scheduled for Sunday. Real Madrid have a relatively easy trip to Rayo, so they should hold their lead at the top of La Liga. Liverpool FC are also scheduled to play in the final of the Carling Cup on Sunday, so King Kenny should earn his first trophy since re-taking over as manager last year. Enough about that, let’s get to this week’s Analyst Picks:
Top 5 Over/Under Picks for the Weekend of 25th February, 2012
1: Blackburn Rovers v Manchester City: Over 3 and 3.5
Often, these analyst picks are based solely on trends because, well, the computer see’s things humans don’t. Over 3 and 3.5 sounds like madness in a football match, but Manchester City are capable and Blackburn Rovers can lose big to this team. Looking at the trends, AccuScore projects the over in 61% of simulations, and this season, the computer has been 14-2 when projecting Over’s with Blackburn Rovers and 17-2 in projecting totals overall. With Manchester City 6-5 on the season in totals and 5-3 in picking Overs, all relevant trends are positive. This is a computer trends pick.
2: Wolverhampton Wanderers v Newcastle United: Over 2.5 goals
AccuScore is 10-4 when picking Overs with Newcastle United. The computer is also 11-4 when over 50% of sims end in the Over for Wolves. Considering this math is 64.7% to go over 2.5 goals according to the computer, this is a Hot trends pick.
3: Milan v Juventus: Under 2.5 Goals
This pick makes sense, but the computer feels extremely strongly about it. Regardless of whether Marti or Quagliarella starts in attack the computer calculates nearly an 80% chance of an Under. With Pato and Robinho expected to start, this is more of a reflection on the defenses and goalkeepers than on the lack of goal scoring talent. With the trends positive for the computer with these teams, the computer expects this to be a defensive Serie A showdown, rather than the goal-fests that have been dominating this season .
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4: Inter Milan v Napoli: Over 2 and 2.5 Goals
The computer is 60% that this match will go over. Cavani, Lavezzi, Milito, Pazzini and a suspect Inter Milan defense can be the key for this over. These teams are a combined 12-5 when AccuScore’s simulations result in 50% or greater in the Over.
5: Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal: Over 2.5 Goals
The computer is 57% that this match will go over. This season, AccuScore is 6-1 predicting Villarreal totals at home and 5-3 predicting Bilbao totals on the road. Also, AccuScore is 9-5 picking the Over with Bilbao and 5-3 picking the Over with Villarreal.
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