Written by Shahan Ahmed

The Red Devils verses the Reds

Manchester United captain Nemanja Vidic, last season’s Barclay’s Premier League Player of the Season, is back for Manchester United. Vidic started United’s Premier League opener but gave way shortly after half-time with a calf injury and has not been seen since.

Nearly 2 months after his last football appearance, Vidic turned up as a surprise starter for Serbia last Tuesday. The towering center-half put in 90 minutes including a crucial missed penalty kick in Serbia’s 1-0 loss to Slovenia—a loss that knocked Serbia out of the Euro 2012 qualification. Welcome back?

Hardly a soul noticed that Vidic was back for United this week because his Manchester United teammate stole all the headlines. Whether it’s his label as the ugliest player in last year’s World Cup, his hair transplant this summer (which looks bloody good, to be honest), his affair with a prostitute while his wife was pregnant, his transfer demands, or his actual footballing abilities, everyone knows Wayne Rooney. And, well, Rooney has a bit of a temper.


Rooney’s 3 match ban was deemed harsh by most pundits

Wazza’s temper was on full display in the last round of qualifiers for England, when the Liverpool native lost his head and kicked his opponent. He was shown a straight red and subsequently banned for 3 matches—the entire group stages at Euro 2012. Not only was the penalty harsh for Rooney, but it was harsh for all England and football fans.

Rooney is a special footballer. His ability, desire, and technique are at such a high level that, a few times every season, he is legitimately compared to Lionel Messi (Cristiano Ronaldo is compared to Messi regularly, but that is hardly a comparison). Were it not for a lingering ankle injury, Rooney and Messi may well be considered equals. Rooney is not a tall figure, only 5 centimeters (2 inches) taller than Messi, and the similarities do not end there.

On the pitch, Messi and Rooney are lethal goal scorers, exceptional passers, match winners, and non-stop work horses. Both possess the special bit of magic their respective teams feed off. This season, Rooney already has 9 goals and 2 assists in 6 Premier League starts. Messi has 8 goals and 5 assists in 6 La Liga starts. Over the past 4 seasons, these two talents have consistently carried their teams to the top of Europe.

In each of the past 4 season, both United and Barcelona have finished in the final 4 of the UEFA Champions League, and the pair has combined to win Europe’s premier club competition 3 times during that span. Rooney is a major constant in United’s ability to reach those heights, and his special talents will be on full display on Saturday at Anfield.

“I’m very excited about the game because I grew up as an Everton fan hating Liverpool.” Rooney said in 2009. “And that hasn’t changed!” This week, he made a similar comment. “It’s a big day for United with the rivalry with Liverpool, but for me it’s a massive game.” An extra motivated Wayne Rooney for the derby match between Liverpool and Manchester United at Anfield, what could be better?

Rooney: Before and after transplant...joking. Gerrard captained Rooney in England's WC squad

Liverpool Captain Steven Gerrard is in line to make his first start since last June. Oh, it just got better! Unlike Vidic, Stevie’s been working his way back to fitness and appeared as a substitute in Liverpool’s last 3 matches before the international break. With an extra 2 weeks of training, Gerrard expects to start on Saturday.

Recent History
Incidentally, Gerrard’s last start was at Anfield against Manchester United, and Liverpool won 3-1. Dirk Kuyt had a hat trick on that day, and Liverpool won comfortably. Javier Hernandez, Chicharito, recorded United’s only tally on the day in the 90th minute.

In the other league meeting between the two clubs, Dimitar Berbatov (remember him? Yea, he’s still on the team and healthy?) scored a hat trick, including an overhead kick that would have been a bicycle save for the fact that Dimitar never left his feet. That thriller at Old Trafford also included 2 goals by Steven Gerrard, but the “genius” of Dimitar Berbatov, as Ferguson labeled it at the time, was too much for Liverpool.


Steven Gerrard is Liverpool Football Club through and through

These 2 sides also met in the 3rd round of the FA Cup, and United won 1-0 at Old Trafford with Ryan Giggs spoiling Kenny Dalglish’s first day back at Anfield. Liverpool have come a long way since that day, and Kenny deserves an healthy pat on the back.

Starting XI:

Liverpool
Reina, Skrtel, Carragher, Enrique, Kelly, Lucas, Adam, Gerrard, Downing, Kuyt, Suarez

Andy Carroll looked less than impressive in his last outing despite tapping in a goal. Dirk Kuyt expects to start in Andy Carroll’s place on Saturday. Luis Suarez, who set up Diego Forlan for Uruguay’s only goal in a 1-1 World Cup qualifying draw with Paraguay earlier this week, will certainly be in the starting XI on Saturday. Suarez has some of that same special spirit Wayne Rooney has.

With Gerrard returning, Charlie Adam and Lucas will likely join their skipper in the middle of the park. Kuyt and Downing will likely string out wide, although Maxi may make a rare start. With the captain back, the Kop will surely be in full voice. However, there are some injuries for Liverpool at the back. Daniel Agger is out and Glen Johnson is not fit. Martin Kelly came off injured for England under 21 but is expected to start.

Manchester United
De Gea, Evra, Vidic, Ferdinand, Fabio, Nani, Anderson, Fletcher, Young, Rooney, Hernandez

Ashley Young has, arguably, been United's best player this season, and he was only allowed to play 60 minutes for England in anticipation of starting on Saturday. Tom Cleverly is still out injured but close to returning. Smalling, Rafael, and Gibson are not available. Johnny Evans should be available as should Lindegaard. Danny Welbeck may be favoured in place of Chicharito because the Mexican took a mid-week flight to Mexico for a friendly vs Brazil. See Full highlights here

Predictions and Picks
AccuScore is a simulation engine that plays out this contest 10,000 times to predict goal scorers and final results. For this match, AccuScore used the lineups described above to simulate this match 10,000 times.

The computer calculated Manchester United to hold the advantage at 48.9% probability of a win and 26.5% chance of a draw. Liverpool had only a 24.6% probability of winning with this lineup. The primary reason for the discrepancy was Wayne Rooney. The former Everton youth player was far and away the most likely scorer at 49% probability of scoring.

Liverpool’s Luis Suarez was the next most likely scorer at 33%. Chicharito was next at 29%. United’s goal scoring prowess convinced the computer that United was the value pick.

Expert Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Despite the return of Vidic and Ferdinand, the computer seems to think there are enough goals to go around. 59.2% of simulations ended with these two teams scoring 3 or more goals, and these teams averaged a combined 3.13 goals per simulation.
Note: Check back on the AccuScore home page for more expert picks on Friday evening/Saturday morning