Written by Shahan Ahmed
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European Football: League-by-League Preview
14th September 2012
Well, the season is starting fresh again. Yes, the Premier League and La Liga is already 3 rounds complete, but the early international break makes it tough for players to get in a rhythm with their clubs. Subsequently, this break also makes it difficult for analysts to truly judge the depth and quality of teams across Europe’s top flight divisions.
Now, however, we’ve reached a rather strong moment that allows us to sit back and enjoy the season for a long spell. Champions League group stage play kicks off next week (stay tuned for AccuScore’s picks on that next week) but a full round of Premiership, La Liga, Serie A, and Bundesliga promises plenty of value opportunities. As is always the case, I’ve taken some time to update squads and make some picks.
The first pick is free for all the world, but to see all of this week’s picks, you must be a registered AccuScore member. Well, on we go, let’s take a look at Europe this weekend:
English Premier League:
The Gunners host Southampton on Saturday. A trip to the Emirates is a difficult way to complete the first month in the Premiership. New-boys Southampton had late 2nd half leads against both Manchester clubs but now sit bottom of the table. Arsenal’s new faces finally broke the Gunners’ duck with two goals at Anfield. Cazorla and Podolski found the target against the Reds, but Giroud is still struggling to find his feet on English soil. I think it may be time for him to score one.
Chelsea returns to Loftus Road to face Queens Park Rangers in a raucous London derby. The trials and controversy of racism clouds this fixture. For all the fuss, Terry and Ferdinand may not take part as both defenders face late fitness tests. With a Champions League match against Juventus on Wednesday, Terry may be wise to rest up and avoid being the center of attention and hate on Saturday. By the way, Chelsea is top of the table with 3 wins in 3.
In other fixtures, Manchester United hosts Wigan Athletic, and Robin Van Persie has overcome a thigh injury for the Red Devils. Manchester City has a tough trip to Stoke City, but Sergio Aguero is back in training. I expect to see Aguero come in off the bench, as the former Atletico Madrid striker will be hopeful for a start in next week’s Champions League trip to face Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeau. Dzeko and Tevez should lead the City attack this weekend.
La Liga
Before looking ahead to Manchester City, Real Madrid has to travel to Sevilla. With Jose Antonio Reyes not expected to play, Los Blancos caught a break. The pressure is on Mourinho’s men, who have dropped points early this season. Something tells me the focus and goal is on Champions League this season.
Mourinho seems to be building a cup team that can beat Barcelona…well, they technically did in the Spanish Super Cup to start the season anyhow. Valencia is off to a strong start, and this is the best Valencia team I’ve seen in a few years. A routine fixture against Celta Vigo should be a cake walk at the Mestalla. Barcelona travels to Getafe, but the blaugrana will probably have more goal celebrations than Getafe will have shots.
Serie A
Juventus is as stronger as ever, and Serie A is weaker than ever. Juventus plays on Sunday away to Genoa, and even without Conte on the sidelines, this team is too good to not collect 3 points. Napoli is the main challenger this season, and Parma is on hand as the sacrificial lamb at the San Paolo on Sunday. Meanwhile, despite a poor showing against Roma prior to the international break, Inter is a solid team and should finish in the top 3. A trip to Torino against a promoted side is not as it appears. Torino is stacked with Serie A talent and experience. Inter Milan faces a tough test away from home, but this is the type of match that Inter must win to return to the Champions League next season.
AC Milan is not nearly as depressed and dismantled a side as the papers would have readers believe. The losses of Ibrahimovic and Thiago Silva were massive, but Pazzini has made an instant splash since arriving from the blue side of town. Also, Sephen El Shaarawy is a young superstar in the making. Add Robinho, Pato, and Bojan Krkic to that strike force, and Milan certainly is capable of scoring some goals. Thiago Silva was a massive loss, without a doubt, but Ibra, perhaps, not as big as many would think. What am I saying? Ibrahimovic was the best striker in Italy prior to his one year in Barcelona and every year since he came back. Even if Milanistas can pretend he’s not a big loss for AC Milan, Serie A cannot mask the pain of watching him leave.
Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen play each other this weekend. That’s a big match. Dortmund and Leverkusen are both playing catch-up to Bayern this season. Heck, all of Europe should take a look at Bayern’s work in the off season and admit that Bayern is probably the best team in Europe. Yes, I know this is a bold statement, but the team that made it to the Champions League final, outplayed its opponent in the final, missed a penalty in extra time, and lost on a penalty that hit the post has greatly improved. GREATLY!
Mario Manzukic was one of the stars of Euro 2012, and with Bayern having signed the striker, they don’t have to rely on Gomez. Also, Claudio Pizarro gives even more cover at striker, and I'd take Pizarro over Olic. In defense, Dante is the strong central defender Bayern were lacking all of last season. In the midfield, Javi Martinez, Xherdan Shaqiri, and Emre Can provide depth and added dimension. For the first time in three years, I can say without any reservations that Bayern Munich is the best team in Germany. In my opinion, Bayern is also the best team in Europe, my early Champions League favorites.
Director’s Top Soccer Picks:
Free Pick: 1. Internazionale Milano at Torino: Inter Milan to win at 2.400
In this young season, Inter Milan has played 6 matches already. 4 of these matches were Europa League and two were Serie A. Of the 6 matches, Inter played 3 at home and 3 on the road. What am I getting at? When Inter puts on their controversial red away jerseys, the black and blues are unbeaten with an aggregate score of 8-0 in their three wins. In contrast, Inter has not won a single match at the San Siro with two losses and one draw. I like Inter away from home, even if Torino is a strong side. The AccuScore computer likes Inter to win and calculates the Nerazzurri winning to have value at 54.2% compared to oddsmakers who give Inter Milan a 40.8% chance of winning.
To see the 2nd of this week’s Director’s Picks, members must log in. Not a member? Well, here’s a recap of how I did last season on my European football picks . Join now using the coupon code “ahmed2013” and get 20% off an annual membership which will give you picks for every game in Europe’s top 4 leagues and Champions League all season long. Join Now !
2. Tottenham Hotspur at Reading: Spurs to win at 2.120
Spurs are not nearly as bad as many would have you believe. Both these teams are winless, but Spurs have a far superior squad. Moussa Dembele’s addition, Adebayor’s return, and Jermaine Defoe’s form makes it hard to see Spurs continuing to find themselves on the latter half of the table. With Van der Vaart off to Hamburg, Sirgurddson know his place in the side is secure. Although a the computer gives the draw and Reading the value in this pick, I tend to believe that AVB will get a win sooner rather than later.
3. Barcelona vs Getafe: Barcelona -1 at 2.130
Note: this line didn't appear to be right, and it wasn't. As such, I'll take my lumps and take Barcelona -1.5 at 1.962. Same rules for the computer apply, but I feel less confident about it
Barcelona wins by 2 or more goals in 62.4% of simulations. Barcelona didn’t start the season especially strong in terms of play, but that just means they’re due for an explosion. Hardly a soul would expect Barcelona to lose on Saturday. Winning by 2 is easy to see, the numbers make sense, and the returns definitely make sense. Take the -1.5.
