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Kansas City Chiefs Offer Best Bet to Win Super Bowl

The first two weeks of the NFL playoffs has passed, but the Super Bowl betting picture hasn’t swayed too much from the start of the playoffs. When 12 teams started the playoffs. AccuScore said that the Kansas City Chiefs offered the best value bet to win the Super Bowl, along with picking the Chiefs as the most likely team to win the NFL's title game. At the time, AccuScore picked the four teams with the bye weeks to advance to Championship weekend, which is where we land now.

While Vegas odds have the New Orleans Saints as the most-likely team to win it all, Accuscore simulations still show that it is AFC number one seeded Kansas City as the computer's pick to stand victorious.

After strong performances by both New England and Kansas City, the Chiefs are still the clear favorites to win Sunday and advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1969, when KC won its only Super Bowl. New England’s track record away from the Foxborough is not very impressive, as they haven’t won a single AFC Championship game on the road since 2004. The Patriots have lost all three times they've had to travel at this stage: twice in Denver and once to Indianapolis. However, Kansas City has never played an AFC Championship game on the home, but the divisional round gave a strong indication that KC is ready to claim its home field advantage.

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AccuScore projected these four teams to meet at this stage before the playoffs started, with two high-flying offenses predicted to face off in the NFC Championship game. The divisional game for New Orleans was a low scoring one, which means it may be defenses on both sides that will need to step up and keep this one low scoring one as well.

When comparing Vegas odds to Accuscore Super Bowl probabilities, Kansas City is still only team to have value for betting to win the Super Bowl. Even though the odds have came down from 6-1 to 7-2, the odds are still over 10% better compared to probabilities from the simulations as seen on the table below:

2019 NFL Playoffs Bracket

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NFL Season Futures

AFC SEASON-TO-DATE FORECAST POSTSEASON
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN DIV PLAYOFF
EAST
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 10 5 10.8 5.2 100% 100%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 7 8 7.5 8.5 0% 0%
BUFFALO BILLS 5 10 5.5 10.5 0% 0%
NEW YORK JETS 4 11 4.2 11.8 0% 0%
NORTH
BALTIMORE RAVENS 9 6 9.7 6.3 71.88% 71.88%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 8 6 8.9 6.1 28.12% 28.12%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 7 7 7.3 7.7 0% 0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 6 9 6.1 9.9 0% 0%
SOUTH
HOUSTON TEXANS 10 5 10.8 5.2 77.72% 100%
TENNESSEE TITANS 9 6 9.6 6.4 12.1% 55.09%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 9 6 9.4 6.6 10.18% 44.91%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 5 10 5.2 10.8 0% 0%
WEST
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 11 4 11.9 4.1 64.93% 100%
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 11 4 11.6 4.4 35.07% 100%
DENVER BRONCOS 6 9 6.4 9.6 0% 0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 4 11 4.1 11.9 0% 0%

NFC SEASON-TO-DATE FORECAST POSTSEASON
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN DIV PLAYOFF
EAST
DALLAS COWBOYS 9 6 9.4 6.6 100% 100%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 8 7 8.8 7.2 0% 31.58%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 7 8 7.2 8.8 0% 10.15%
NEW YORK GIANTS 5 10 5.6 10.4 0% 0%
NORTH
CHICAGO BEARS 11 4 11.4 4.6 100% 100%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 8 6 8.6 6.4 0% 58.27%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 6 8 6.7 8.3 0% 0%
DETROIT LIONS 5 10 5.3 10.7 0% 0%
SOUTH
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 13 2 13.7 2.3 100% 100%
ATLANTA FALCONS 6 9 6.6 9.4 0% 0%
CAROLINA PANTHERS 6 9 6.3 9.7 0% 0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 5 10 5.4 10.6 0% 0%
WEST
LOS ANGELES RAMS 11 4 11.6 4.4 100% 100%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 9 6 9.8 6.2 0% 100%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 4 11 4.4 11.6 0% 0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS 4 11 4.2 11.8 0% 0%

AFC, EAST

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

AFC, EAST

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

AFC, NORTH

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

AFC, NORTH

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

AFC, SOUTH

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

AFC, SOUTH

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

AFC, WEST

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

AFC, WEST

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

NFC, EAST

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

NFC, EAST

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

NFC, NORTH

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

NFC, NORTH

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

NFC, SOUTH

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

NFC, SOUTH

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

NFC, WEST

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

NFC, WEST

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

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