on the same day. Both games featured dramatic comebacks, stellar quarterback play, extremely controversial refereeing decisions and will be discussed ad nauseum for the next two weeks. Outside of the talking points that will be regurgitated by talking heads, there were actually some very interesting football lessons to learn. I’m not going to spend any time talking about the pass interference non-call in New Orleans or the botched muffed punt call in Kansas City, because we all know they were bad calls and there is nothing to do about it now.
Coaches Can Choke Too
Every coach except for Bill Belichick put on one of their worst performances of the entire season. Sean McVay and Sean Payton, in particular, were guilty of not putting their teams in position to succeed. Payton’s odd fascination with using Taysom Hill in high leverage situations did pay off with a receiving touchdown, but in general, taking the ball out of generational QB Drew Brees’ hands is not a sharp coaching decision. McVay continually ran C.J Anderson into stacked boxes despite avoiding that pitfall during the regular season. I actually don’t care so much that he chose to give Anderson carries over Todd Gurley, as Anderson was reasonably effective and Gurley hasn’t been above average in over a month, but in general, the Rams’ game plan seemed more like something that Jeff Fisher would draw up.
The continued short passes to Robert Woods and refusal to take shots down the field until later in the game made this a less enjoyable watch than it should have been. I threw it out on Twitter that it seemed like both Payton and McVay were choking when their teams needed them, and former pro baseball pitcher Brandon McCarthy replied in agreement. Both teams’ box scores belie it all. The Saints added 5.89 Expected Points via the pass and -6.36 via the rush; the Rams added 9.94 Expected Points via the pass and -3.14 via the rush. The game was begging for both coaches to throw more, but both chose to run far more than was appropriate.
In Kansas City, it was clear that Andy Reid was not ready to go to battle. There were several instances where the team had a fourth and short and Reid chose to punt. In particular, in the second quarter, the Chiefs had a fourth and one on their own 29-yard line where the math said to go for it and they opted to punt. The Chiefs played a passive, annoying brand of football that we have not come to associate with Patrick Mahomes. Despite clawing back in the second half, if they had been more aggressive early, there is a chance that they could have had a two-score lead late.
Slot Wide Receivers Are The Most Valuable Skill Position Players
The Patriots would not be going to yet another Super Bowl without Julian Edelman. The clear focus of the Patriots’ defensive game plan was to limit Tyreek Hill. The Saints’ offense found themselves finally freed up when they used Alvin Kamara on crossing routes against linebackers. The Rams use their tight/bunch formations to allow all of their pass catchers to run routes that freed themselves up over the middle. This is a massive paradigm shift of how we think about football. For decades, a team’s best wide receiver played on the outside of the formation and secured a heavy portion of their receptions along the boundaries. Rewind to the 2012 NFL season and the Top Five receiving yardage leaders were Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Demaryius Thomas and Vincent Jackson. This year, Julio Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyreek Hill all cracked the Top Five in receiving yards while playing at least 30 percent of their snaps from the slot.
NFL teams are passing more often and running less often than at any point in recent memory. It is understandable, given that the average passing play gains more yards than the average running play. However, there is still a need from many coaches to have short and high percentage plays as a part of the playbook. Instead of choosing to rush for those plays, many teams are using their slot wide receivers to pick up seven yards at a time. As the league continues to throw the ball more often, the importance of a reliable and explosive slot wide receiver will continue to rise.
The Chiefs Still Have Work To Do
I honestly expected Sunday night to be a coronation for Patrick Mahomes, a perfect cherry on top of an MVP season. Unfortunately, that is not what happened and it was not just the defense’s fault. Andy Reid was pretty clearly out-coached by Bill Belichick and the offense sputtered to start the game. While Mahomes is a game-breaking player of the highest talent, relying on him to make superhuman throws drive after drive is not a recipe for success. The Patriots have a high-percentage offense that doesn’t require Brady to be a magician; it is just very intelligent. Giving Mahomes more high percentage throws and more intelligent route combinations will open up the Chiefs’ offense to be even more frightening than it was this year.
Consider that Patrick Mahomes actually beat his NFL Next Gen Stats Expected Completion Percentage in 2018 while Tom Brady’s actual completion percentage was lower than his expected. A good offense should create many opportunities where all the players have to do is execute, not go above and beyond.
Finally, it is clear that it’s hard for a team to win a Super Bowl with a defense as bad as Kansas City’s. The defensive line is good, but when that unit is stymied, relying on this secondary is playing Russian Roulette with the chamber fully loaded. Jared Sorenson, Eric Berry, Steven Nelson and Kendall Fuller all played truly bad football, and if the Chiefs don’t find replacements for at least some of them in the offseason, it will be an uphill climb for them to return to the AFC Championship game.
