Chiefs win from me last week. We should have had a perfect 3-0 week against the spread until the Chiefs special teams went full LOL and handed the Titans a short field to take the lead against KC. This has been a really interesting year of NFL sports betting as favorites have done worse than normal and teams at home have had a losing record OUTRIGHT and against the spread. I’ve had a great time sharing my thought process with you guys and hope to close the year strong.
As always, use this article as a reminder to keep tailing the SportsGrid betting model and #TrustTheProcess.
Davis Mattek Record: 16-15 ATS
Week Eleven NFL Sports Betting Picks
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
Please, I am begging you, do not get off of the Kansas City Chiefs because they have ran bad in a few games. The roster was good enough to keep them afloat while they didn’t have all world Patrick Mahomes and guess what? Now they have all world Patrick Mahomes! To not cover against the Titans, Damien Williams had to fumble in the exact perfect way to let the defense return it for a touchdown, an offside had to be called improperly on the field goal kick and they had to botch an easy field goal attempt for Harrison Butker. The Chiefs are second in the NFL in yards per play, trailing only the Dallas Cowboys. The Chargers, on the other hand, average almost a full yard less per play on offense than the Chiefs. This is pacing to be the worst Chargers seaason since 2016 when Philip Rivers averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Rivers is slightly below his career norm of 7.* YPA now and is looking like a 38-year-old quarterback. The Chiefs have a better offense, a better coach and the much better quarterback while the Chargers have no home-field advantage to speak of. I would bet the Chiefs up to -4.5 and will be betting the moneyline here as well.
Baltimore Ravens -4
In a very strange way, the Achilles Heel for the Ravens early in the season was their defense. The Browns scored 40 against them with 173 rushing yards, the Chiefs scored 33 while mostly not getting out of second gear and even the Steelers with Mason Rudolph/Duck Hodges were able to force them to overtime. However, the tides have started turn over the last few weeks as they stifled the Patriots to 192 passing yards and they ran the Seattle Seahawks out of their own building. This team is looking like a legit Super Bowl favorite and they have one secret weapon that the Texans do not quite have: they do not lose as many yards to sacks and to ineffective runs.
DeShaun Watson, and by extension, the Texans, are great. The Ravens are third in the NFL in yards per play, the Texans are fifth in the NFL in yards per play. It may seem strange to have two great offenses against each other as a best bet (and I do love the over here). However, my opinion here is that Lamar Jackson is not being valued highly enough. The Ravens are the best running team in football and it isn’t even close (a half-yard better than everyone else). While #runningbacksdonotmatter, positive plays do. Mark Ingram has the fourth-highest success rate of any running back (minimum 36 rushes) and Lamar has a higher success rate than he does. If this line was -6, it would be a no bet but at -4, I love Lamar and the Ravens.
New England Patriots -3.5
The Philadelphia Eagles, well, they just aren’t any good. The Ravens actually deserved to be close to the Patriots. The Eagles, do not. Philly has the 17th ranked pass offense by DVOA and average only 5.2 yards per offensive play. Now, the Patriots also average only 5.2 offensive yards per play but the Patriots defense is overwhelmingly good. The Eagles defense is not. The good offenses the Eagles have faced have gotten: 38 (Vikings), 37 (Cowboys), 27 (Detriot and Green Bay) and 24 (Atlanta). Even the awful Washington professional football team scored 24 against them!
So the Eagles are a middling defense, a middling offense and their quarterback is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. Yes, they are at home, but no, they aren’t going to win. The Patriots are far for more mortal in the public eye after their loss to the Ravens, but guess what, Carson Wentz is not Lamar Jackson and Doug Pederson is no Harbaugh/Greg Roman. I know that I am just on the stone chalk this week with the Patriots and the Chiefs but if you bet on good teams, you are going to get good results. Let’s get it!
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