projections are a tremendous starting spot for your 2019 fantasy research, but like most projections, will only be considered one of the many possible outcomes that exist for each player/team. When compiling
rankings, it is best to consider as many possible outcomes as possible, as well as the payoff and probability of those outcomes. The first team on our list is the Indianapolis Colts
The Contingency Plan looks to find those outcomes you may not be considering for 2019. By using a series of “what if” questions, the goal is to help you look a little deeper into each team and, hopefully, uncover some league winners. Some of these questions will exist for most teams, while others will be unique to the specific squad at hand. Today, we cover the Indianapolis Colts.
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Ebron enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2018, scoring 13 receiving TDs. No other Colts player had more than six. However, the Colts made some additions to their receiving core in the off-season, most notably signing Funchess and drafting Parris Campbell. Campbell is built more in the mold of top wideout T.Y. Hilton. Funchess, however is the only WR on the roster you would classify as “big”. He is six feet and four inches tall at 232 pounds.
Meanwhile, Ebron was far less effective with Jack Doyle on the field for Indy.
In 5 full games together in 2018
Jack Doyle & Eric Ebron
Doyle
Targets: 29
Rz Targets: 6
Snaps: Never Below 76%
Routes per gm: 27.4
Ebron
Targets: 15
Rz Targets: 4
Snaps Never Above 40%
Routes per gm: 11.4 pic.twitter.com/4cfCOHaG4n
— DBro (@DBro_FFB) May 13, 2019
Ebron saw over 25% of his targets from the slot in 2018, and will struggle to see as much playing time there with the low aDOT Campbell in the fold as a second round pick. Insert Funchess, who has the best touchdown rate of all Indianapolis pass-catchers.
| Player | Targets | TDs | TD Rate |
|---|
| Devin Funchess | 312 | 21 | 6.7% |
| Eric Ebron | 398 | 24 | 6.0% |
| Jack Doyle | 259 | 14 | 5.4% |
| T.Y. Hilton | 877 | 40 | 4.6% |
| Chester Rogers | 143 | 3 | 2.1% |
WR has more open snaps/targets available than TE does, especially outside the hashes, making Funchess a worthwhile gamble in the mid-rounds. He is currently coming off the board as the 40th WR on DRAFT, three full rounds later than Ebron.
What If Marlon Mack Suffers A Sustained Injury?
Expect this question to be a staple of this series, but examining the RB depth chart past the starter is almost always a worthwhile exercise. Mack is clearly the lead back and workhorse of the team after returning from a four-game suspension to average 16.3 rush attempts and 2.2 targets. He is now being drafted at the top of the third round as a top 15 RB.
But what if he goes down? Fortunately, we have that four-game suspension to help drum up some inferences.
| Player | Rushes | Targets | Half PPR |
|---|
| Nyheim Hines | 7.25 | 8.50 | 12.95 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 8.50 | 2.00 | 4.50 |
The rushing load was fairly split between Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins, with Wilkins taking the lead. In the passing game, however, Hines was the clear preference, averaging over four times as many targets as his battery-mate. The Colts are far more stocked in the receiving game than they were at this time last year, so I’m not suggesting Hines is a 130 target player if Mack goes down. But even in half PPR formats like DRAFT, he is likely to be a very valuable player.
It is also worth noting that Hines had five opportunities inside of the five-yard line last season while Wilkins only had two. Hines is an excellent Zero RB option in the double-digit rounds of drafts.
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