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these Fantasy Baseball questions in Week 8’s SOBB Your Way to Success.

As always, we use SOBB (breakdown here) as the initial base when projecting a pitcher’s future performance.

Range of starting pitcher SOBBs (K-BB%) and the values they hold.

Range of relief pitcher SOBBs (K-BB%) and the values they hold.

Cheers or Tears

Danny Duffy, KC – Duffy surprised the Fantasy Baseball world last year with a terrific season, posting a 12-3 record with a 3.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 188 strikeouts in 179.2 innings. The ERA is lower this year, but so are Duffy’s strikeouts, while his walk rate and WHIP are higher. That is… until Duffy’s last three starts. Duffy has a 1.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 (27.4 K%). However, despite those numbers and a 20.2 SOBB, Duffy’s xFIP is 4.05 over those three starts. Why is that? It’s mostly due to a high strand rate and that most of his metrics are in line with what Duffy has been doing the entire season. Two of those starts also came against the Yankees, a team near the top in strikeout rate versus lefties. Does that mean Duffy is going to regress to his 4.52 season xFIP? No, he’s better than that. However, he’s been far less consistent with the strikeouts this season and walking more, giving him a SOBB of just 11.3, when it was 20.0 last year. Duffy is somewhere in between his last three amazing starts and his overall numbers, so look to sell high if someone is buying. Just don’t sell to sell, though, because he’s still a Top 35 pitcher.

Lance McCullers, HOU – Now, McCullers is a pitcher that you should aggressively try to sell high. There are two factors when it comes to McCullers that should have you fielding offers. First, as with Duffy, McCullers isn’t as good as his recent stretch (four starts)… no pitcher is, as McCullers hasn’t allowed an earned run in those. McCullers has a BABIP of .161 and 94.7 LOB% over those four starts. Can you say unsustainable? Additionally, his SOBB isn’t anything special at just 14.4. McCullers is pitching well, but

The Dodgers gave up on Urias for now, so should you… for now. Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire

luck has been heavily on his side. The second reason you need to sell high is that McCullers isn’t going past 150 or so innings, and he’s already at 59.1. McCullers has a history of injury issues and a career high of 125.2 innings in 2015. You’ve already gotten your return value on him or close to it, so trade him before the end of June.

Marco Estrada, TOR – It’s safe to say that Estrada is having his best Fantasy Baseball season ever, and that’s still a surprise as most expected him to fail in his transition to the AL back in 2015. It’s not the ERA or WHIP that’s surprising for Estrada, as they are within his ability and the xFIP is just 0.45 higher than his 3.30 ERA. The surprise is the strikeouts, as Estrada has a 10.1 K/9 and 21.0 SOBB thanks to a decreased walk rate to boot. Estrada has been more effective with his changeup this year and is throwing it more often. That has pushed Estrada’s SwStr% to a career high of 12.2. Estrada used to be a pitcher to avoid against tough opponents, as he didn’t miss enough bats. With the added strikeout upside, Estrada is now a Top 20 pitcher and someone you can roll out every start, even against the Astros or in Colorado.

Julio Urias, LAD – The Dodgers gave up on Urias – for now – so should you do the same? Obviously, in 12-team leagues you know you don’t have the bench room to hold on, but even in 15-teamers, I’d let Urias go. I’d try to trade him away to someone who might see “the upside” for when he returns, but Urias is likely a throw-in piece at this point… at best. Urias had an ugly 5.40 ERA and uglier -3.0 SOBB. Yes, that’s negative. Urias had a 10.8 K%, 13.7 BB%, 4.2 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9. That’s beyond awful. While Urias has much more strikeout upside than that, the walks were a concern in his 2016 stint and again in his time in Triple-A to start 2017. The biggest issue this year appears to be that Urias just hasn’t figured out what works against advanced hitting. He was throwing his changeup nearly twice as much as last year and barely using his curve. Additionally, his SwStr% was down to 8.9 and F-Strike% was a weak 52.0. Urias still has a high ceiling, but he obviously needs more work, similar to Jose Berrios last year. Urias isn’t even 21 years old yet, so don’t write him off… for 2018 and beyond. This year? It’s doubtful that Urias will have any value.

Amir Garrett, CIN – Well, that was a fun ride. Too bad we missed the exit and rode off to unfinished tracks, plummeting to our demise. Garrett allowed 13 runs in just 9.0 innings in his two starts since returning from Triple-A. That’s a stark contrast to the five quality starts over his first six outings. The truth is, owners were hung up on his 12-strikeout performance against the Orioles, thinking Garrett had tremendous potential. The fact is that Garrett isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher, and while he’s not this bad, Garrett is a matchup play at best. Garrett’s only stop in the minors where he had a K/9 over 8.6 was in 77.0 IP for the Double-A team in 2016. That was the only time he had a SOBB over 13.6 as well (6.0 IP in 2012 rookie ball don’t count). Garrett struggles with his command, and when you don’t miss bats on top of that (8.9 SwStr%), you’re going to struggle in the majors. Owners in 15-team leagues can’t drop him, as there will be better starts. However, you don’t want to use Garrett in Head-to-Head at all, and again, he’s only a matchup play now.

Streaming Pitchers to Target Next Week

Rays: 17.1 SOBB, 27.3 K%, 107 wRC+

Martin Perez, A.J. Griffin, TEX; Ariel Miranda, SEA

Brewers: 15.6 SOBB, 24.3 K%, 101 wRC+

Zack Wheeler, NYM; Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, LAD

Padres: 15.4 SOBB, 23.7 K%, 77 wRC+

Eddie Butler, CHC; German Marquez, Tyler Chatwood, Tyler Anderson, COL

Rockies: 15.4 SOBB, 22.6 K%, 84 wRC+

Ariel Miranda, SEA; Clayton Richard, SD

Orioles: 15.1 SOBB, 22.5 K%, 98 wRC+ (better to stream lefties)

Luis Severino, NYY; Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS

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