place in the entire world, NFL playoff games likely draw the most action. Perhaps World Cup soccer games or the final of the college football playoff might get more raw dollars, but rest assured, these games are being bet by every sharp, fish, square, mush and more. So when Seattle loses the cover by half of a point (due to a missed two-point conversion), and then Minnesota and Baltimore get blown out, we just have to feel lucky that Kansas City had the best comeback in NFL sports betting history.
Despite the tribulations of betting on the playoff games thus far, we are ready to wager on the two NFL conference championship games and will be ending the 2019-20 NFL season with a winning record against the spread. Let’s end this the right way!
As always, use this article as a reminder to keep tailing the SportsGrid betting model and #TrustTheProcess.
Davis Mattek NFL Sports Betting Record: 34-25-1 ATS
Conference Championship NFL Sports Betting Picks
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5
The Titans are clearly better than we thought. They beat the Patriots and Ravens as road underdogs in two games in a row which would have been hard even if both teams were underrated. However, they are also one of the luckiest teams in NFL history and with Ryan Tannehill under center, they currently have a ratio of 31 touchdowns to ONE field goal. I know that Derrick Henry looks awesome and that the jump pass touchdown to Corey Davis after he sprang a 60-yard run is one of the coolest sequences we have had this year, but the logical end of the fairy tale is going to be in Kansas City at the hands of the best passing quarterback the NFL has ever seen.
In all but one of Patrick Mahomes’ starts, the Chiefs have scored over 26 points. They have scored over 50 points twice (against the Rams last season and the Texans last week). Of all quarterbacks in the history of the game with at least 400 passing attempts by the age of 24, Mahomes has the highest adjusted yards per attempt. Of all quarterbacks who have played two NFL seasons, Mahomes averages the most yards per game by over 40. What we are seeing with the Chiefs offense has never been done before, in a way that is sustainable. What we are seeing with the Titans offense has also never been done before, but in a way that is very easy to project as unsustainable and prone to regression.
Kansas City just doesn’t run. They pass the ball and then when you think they are going to run, they pass the ball some more. The Titans have been one of the best teams in the NFL at run blocking (a huge part of Henry’s success) and are elite when it comes to both their usage and efficacy while using play-action passing. If the Titans are able to do exactly what they did when these teams met in the regular season which included some huge turnover luck and Patrick Mahomes playing banged up while also missing a kick to tie the game up at the end of regulation, maybe they are the “sharp side”. However, I will continue to wager on the man who is redefining what we thought was possible in the sport of football: Patrick Mahomes.
Green Bay Packers +7.5
I hate it, I hate it, I hate it, I hate it, I HATE IT. If it was not my job to pick games, to think about how and why lines are made the way they are, I would not make a pick on this game. We have long held the opinion that the Green Bay Packers are the most fraudulent 13-3 in NFL history. We bet on the Seahawks +4.5 last week and felt pretty confident about it; in fact, I would wager to say it was a bad beat to not get that cover. The Packers have underwhelmed at most stages this season and when the 49ers and Packers played in the regular season, it was one of the least competitive games of Aaron Rodger’s career. In fact, it was the second-largest margin of defeat of his career and just like this game, it took place in San Francisco.
All of that being said: what happened in the regular season is not going to happen exactly in the postseason. It is statistically true that beating the same team multiple times is not easy. It is also true that Rodgers gets an absurd amount of respect in Vegas lines. He has only been a seven-point underdog ONCE since 2010. He has only been a 4.5 point under eight times total. So as the biggest underdog he has ever been, why are we taking Rodgers’ side for the first time all season?
The line is just too big my friends. Seven and a half points for Jimmy G and Raheem Mostert? I think Kyle Shanahan is a great coach and play-caller, I think that the 49ers will be ready to play and have a pristine gameplan. However, Jimmy is not Aaron Rodgers, even emaciated 36-year-old Aaron Rodgers. If this was just an even seven, I think the 49ers would be the right call but sitting at a two score game, the selection has to be Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
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