1. Bengals – Joe Burrow, QB
This has been etched in stone for months. Recent reports Thursday morning citing Cincy spurning the advances of Miami only further solidify this pick.
2. Redskins – Chase Young, DE
Also a lock. The Redskins do not appear to be entertaining realistic offers for the second overall pick and will likely opt to draft this generational pass-rushing prospect.
3. Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa, QB (via Detroit)
The Lions clearly want to move out of the third pick since they do not desire a QB. Miami has been rumored heavily to move up to this pick, and I do not buy for one second that it would be for a tackle. Since this is only a two spot jump with limited interest, Miami may be able to get here using their arsenal of picks outside of round one, and select their QB of the future.
4. Giants – Tristan Wirfs, OT
King of Hog Mollies Dave Gettleman is absolutely leaving this draft with one of the top OL prospects. Insiders around the team appear to be leaning Wirfs over Jedrick Wills at this time.
5. Lions – Jeff Okudah, CB (via Miami)
This should come down to Okudah or Auburn DT Derrick Brown, but I’ll stick with the chalk for the Lions at a clear position of need after trading away Darius Slay.
6. Chargers – Justin Herbert, QB
Herbert and the Chargers have been in frequent contact during the draft process, and it does not make sense for L.A. to pass on a QB given the overall strength of the roster. They will be in terrible shape long-term at the game’s most important position if they don’t take their shot here.
7. Panthers – Derrick Brown, DT
Carolina will likely be going defense with this pick, and have a huge need on the interior defensive line. There are experts who have questioned Brown as an elite prospect, but it seems all but certain that he will be selected in this draft range.
8. Cardinals – Jedrick Wills, OT
The Cards could absolutely take a premier defensive player here, but this team revolves around one player: Kyler Murray. Protect the money.
9. Falcons – C.J. Henderson, CB (via Jacksonville)
The Falcons have been the most aggressive team trying to move up, and Henderson has legit shut-down potential at a premium position. I’m not positive the Jags would do this trade with Isaiah Simmons still on the board, but questions of fit around the league make it plausible, especially if Atlanta is willing to overpay.
10. Browns – Isaiah Simmons, LB/S
I think that Trent Williams will be a Brown by the end of business on Thursday, which makes Cleveland a potential trade-back team if they can’t get a premier defensive talent. With Simmons still on the board, the Browns stick and take him here.
11. Jets – Andrew Thomas, OT
Something good may happen to the Jets this year! Thomas is a legit LT that is considered in the same tier as the first two OT’s off the board. Much like the Cardinals, protecting Sam Darnold has to be priority number one.
12. Raiders – CeeDee Lamb, WR
With some potential questions surrounding Jerry Jeudy’s health, it appears Lamb is destined to be the first wideout off the board. Vegas absolutely needs an alpha out wide.
13. 49ers – Jerry Jeudy, WR
San Francisco could use another WR after losing Emmanuel Sanders in free-agency, and are close enough to winning a title right now that they likely care less about the long-term ramification of Jeudy’s knee than other teams.
14. Buccaneers – Mekhi Becton, OT
He had his Combine drug test flagged, but Becton has the talent of a top-10 pick. Since trading for Tom Brady, the Bucs have done nothing but try to put him in position to win another title, and Tampa needs serious help up-front if they plan to properly protect a 43 year-old QB.
15. Broncos – Henry Ruggs, WR
Denver may ultimately end up trading up to make this pick (Cleveland?), but can get him right where they are in this mock. Ruggs and the Broncos have been linked throughout the draft process.
16. Jaguars – Javon Kinlaw, DT (via Atlanta)
Jacksonville will pray to land Derrick Brown at nine, but trading back for Kinlaw is not a bad plan B. The Jags need help up front.
17. Cowboys – K’Lavon Chaisson, DE/LB
Chaisson is a rising edge prospect capable of getting after the QB. The Cowboys will happily add them to their defensive front, and it could create some cap space if the team moves on from oft-injured Tyrone Crawford.
18. Dolphins – Austin Jackson, OT
After donating bone marrow to his sister prior to last season, Jackson got off to a slow start at USC as his body was still recovering. He is considered a rising, true LT prospect, and fits the theme of this mock: protect the QB.
19. Raiders – Kristian Fulton, CB
Fulton is favored to be the third corner off the board, and Vegas has a major need at that position. Leaving the first round with a WR and CB will likely be the preferred strategy of this front office.
20. Jaguars – A.J. Terrell, CB
Jacksonville has traded away both Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye in the last eight months. Time to re-stock.
21. Eagles – Justin Jefferson, WR
Philly needs to set themselves up to not have Greg Ward as a starting WR when Alshon Jeffery’s body is done decaying on the field. Jefferson is ironically similar to former Eagle Nelson Agholor, but hopefully with a better mental game.
Minnesota traded away Stefon Diggs to acquire this pick, but it should be well worth it if the team can do a better job protecting Kirk Cousins.
23. Colts – Jordan Love, QB (via New England)
This draft is loaded with first-round caliber players, and that will likely extend well into the second round. The Patriots would happily take Indy’s two top-45 selections in order for the Colts to get their potential QB of the future.
24. Saints – Patrick Queen, LB
One of the league’s best rosters shores up the defense with a local product. Queen is capable of playing all three downs.
25. Vikings – Jaylon Johnson, CB
The Vikings cut Xavier Rhodes this off-season, and are very thin at corner. Johnson projects as someone similar to Rhodes, but without health and salary concerns.
26. Dolphins – Ezra Cleveland, OT
Protect. The. Quarterback. If you are going to move up and select Tua, especially with his present health concerns, then it is imperative to upgrade the offensive line. This Miami o-line was terrible in 2019, and will need upgrades at both tackle spots. Cleveland is an excellent fit in that he can play both positions, and is one of the better zone blockers in the class.
27. Seahawks – Yetur Gross-Matos, DE
Pass rush is a priority for the Seahawks this year according to almost every source close to the team. Gr0ss-Matos had 34.5 tackles for loss, and 17 sacks in his final two years at Penn State.
28. Ravens – Kenneth Murray, LB
Perhaps Baltimore’s weakest position on defense. Murray was also a team captain, something good NFL front offices seem to covet.
29. Titans – Isaiah Wilson, OT
Tennessee could take A.J. Epenesa with this pick, but the more I look at him, I’m not sure he makes it into the first round with the lack of athleticism, and overall depth of this class. The Titans could use another tackle after losing Jack Conklin in free agency.
30. Packers – Denzel Mims, WR
Green Bay has no real threat at receiver across from Davante Adams, but adding this explosive Baylor weapon would change that in a hurry.
31. 49ers – Xavier McKinney, S
This is a bit of a slide for McKinney, but Alabama’s excellent safety will find a new home on one of the league’s best defenses. This should help facilitate a trade of Jaquiski Tartt, who the Niners have been supposedly shopping, as the team continues to try and get younger and cheaper defensively.
32. Chiefs – Trevon Diggs, CB
I could see Diggs coming off the board as early as 19, but here he comes off just inside the first round. Diggs converted from WR while at Alabama, and has the kind of frame and athleticism teams covet at the position. Now he just needs a bit of coaching.
