Accuscore Expert Analyst Pick: Ottawa Senators @ Buffalo Sabres

NHL on Tuesday: Ottawa Senators @ Buffalo Sabres

Tonight we’ll take a look at an intriguing matchup at the bottom of the NHL Eastern Conference. Last season’s fairytale team Ottawa Senators host the still rebuilding Buffalo Sabres – and things are not looking great for either of the teams.

Senators went and surprised everyone last season by reaching the conference finals and eventually were one overtime win away from the Stanley Cup finals. They were supposed to continue where they left off, with most of the team intact, but not all fairytales are meant to be. Senators are currently second to last in the Eastern Conference with only 25 points in 28 games. They’ve struggled mightily up front, even after upgrading Kyle Turris to Matt Duchene. Tight games leading to extra time have not treated Sens well, as they are 2-7 in those games.

The only team worse off than the Senators is their tonight’s host Sabres, still in the midst of their rebuild process. After drafting a superstar caliber center in Jack Eichel, it was supposed to be all fun and games for Dan Bylsma’s team. But instead it was a struggle all along and now Bylsma is gone, as well as any progress he might’ve achieved. Now Sabres are worse than ever, only picking up 20 points in 30 games and a measly six wins in regulation. They’ve not been able to score, while the D is leaking. It definitely looks like another lottery in Buffalo.

All of Accuscore’s NHL Money Line Side Value picks for 2017/2018 are so far 120-102 (54.1 %) with a profit of +578 (100 unit stake per bet).

Accuscore’s simulations

Accuscore simulations back the home team, if ever so slightly. In simulations the Sabres take two points with 52.9% likelihood. Both teams have struggled in the overtime, but it’s likely that’s exactly where the game is headed. In 3-way simulations, the game ends only after overtime or shootout with 31% probability. The home team wins in regulation with 37% probability, while the Senators steal the win in regulation with 32%.

The Sabres outscore their visitors by 2.7 goals on average vs 2.5 goals by the Senators. The most probable scorer is Buffalo’s power forward Evander Kane, who hits the twine 0.5 times per simulation. For the Senators, duo of Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone both score 0.35 goals per simulation. However, it is Erik Karlsson of the Senators and Jack Eichel of the Sabres who are most likely to add to their point totals: Karlsson scores at least one point with 49 % probability while Eichel’s percentage is 46.

Analyst Picks:

  • There’s a small value in home win, with simulations indicating odds of -112 | 1.89
  • Betting on 3-way draw is not that common, but this game presents high value: offers on a tie range all the way to +295 | 3.95, while simulations indicate 31 % (+223 | 3.23)
  • Over/under lines are well in line, so no great value bets