Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Monday Bowl Mania - 2 picks Jan 2, 2017 Bowl Games
It's 2017, but there's still plenty of NCAA Football action to pay attention to and wager on this Monday with four big-time Bowl games taking place.
We've simulated each matchup 10,000-plus times and here's one of the best bets based on the simulations and betting trends.
1. Some Money Line Value on Penn State
We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore simulation data pick different favorites. That's the case exactly in this situation, but simulation data suggests the matchup should be a lot more competitive than Vegas linemakers suggest it'll be.
Whereas Penn St. has just about a 28-to-29 percent chance of winning the game according to Vegas odds (+250), AccuScore sim data has that up at 44 percent.
AccuScore would have listed their odds at about +130 or +125 on the money line, making the +250 fairly attractive.
• Penn State and USC are both 5-0 against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) in their last 5 games, respectively.
• The total has gone OVER in five of Penn State's last six games.
2. OVER on the Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Two of the best programs in the country go head-to-head in this year's Cotton Bowl, with Wisconsin defying all odds to finish the regular season 10-2 and winning and Big Ten West, and Western Michigan unexpectedly running the table to finish 13-0.
Vegas has the total set at 52, but the sim data has it five points higher at 57 - a three-star (out of four) hot trend. The total combined score goes OVER 52 in over 59 percent of simulations.
• The total has gone OVER in four of Western Michigan's last six games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of Wisconsin's last five games.
Keep an eye on Wisconsin's secondary and how they gameplan against QB Zach Terrell. On one side, you have a Badgers' unit that's recorded 21 INTs this season - good for second most in the nation. They've allowed just 12 TD passes all season.
Terrell, on the other hand, doesn't really throw picks, entering this week's matchup with the best TD-to-INT ratio [32:3] in the country.
All 2017 Bowl Picks: EVERY game... Click Here for all of AccuScore's 2016 College Football Bowl Picks