Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter
NCAA Football: 2016 Season Preview - Value Picks
The NCAA football slate gets going this week and there's no better way to kick off the season than to look at contenders vs pretenders.
Which college football teams have the best odds to win the 2016 National Championship? Take a look here.
Which dark hose of a program will find itself in the playoff picture? Which teams are heading into the regular season overrated or overvalued? Read below:
Value Picks
At 125/1 odds, Boise State - according to our simulations - has more than enough value to warn a wager of some sort. After 10,000-plus simulations of each game in the regular season, Boise St. lost zero games. Pete Fiutak of College Football News recently ranked his teams for the upcoming season; he has Boise St. sneaking in as the fourth and final playoff team. Not much to lose at 125/1, especially with a projected 12-0 finish.
LSU having the fifth best odds at 9:1 is a steal right now. Just think about it - there's no way they're not contending for the title at any point this season. Leonard Fournette is going to dominate his way to a top draft choice and the Tigers will tag along for the ride.
AccuScore simulations project LSU finishing the regular season with one loss (11-1), coming on Nov. 5, 2016 to Alabama, 24-20.
A little too much hype?
Stanford
At the time of publication, Stanford was listed with the 11th best odds to win the National Title; they opened up at No. 10 just a week prior. Despite the expected dominance from RB Christian McCaffrey, the fact of the matter is the rest of the Cardinal roster just doesn't offer enough consistency to remain a top contender.
Sure, they lost QB Kevin Hogan, but what was even more debilitating to the team was the loss of three offensive lineman. All that plus the level of competition within the Pac-12 should be evidence that Stanford's 10th best odds just might be a mirage.
AccuScore, however, agrees with Vegas oddsmakers and would suggest a futures bet on Stanford. They're projected to lose just one game in the regular season.
Michigan
Before anyone gets upset that Michigan is even on this list, let's start by saying one thing: the Wolverines are going to be very, very good this season. They have talent on both sides of the ball, and are well coached. That's enough, right?
Sort of. The Wolverines' biggest obstacle this season will be their own division, Big Ten East.
Opening up with the fifth best odds in the country to win the title, Michigan will need to win the Big Ten to reach the playoffs; there aren't a whole lot of people out there who would pick them over Ohio State and Michigan State.
AccuScore simulations project Michigan losing 4 games in the regular season.
Tennessee
The Volunteers being listed at 15:1 odds, 8th best in the country, has to be a joke - right?
Maybe, maybe not. It just comes down to how confident you are with QB Joshua Dobbs. It'll take a remarkable season from Dobbs - something he's clearly capable of - but that's assuming it happens simultaneously with Florida or Georgia not showing up all season.
There's a three-game stretch that just might determine how the SEC East unfolds: at Georgia, at Texas A&M, and at home vs Alabama. All three games are projected to be very close contests, with two of three currently simulated as toss-ups.
Tennessee will be a very good team, no doubt, but affording them such favorable odds might be a bit of a stretch.
AccuScore projects Tennessee to lose three regular season games.
