Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NBA: Pacers-Heat & Lakers-Timberwolves Preview
Today's ESPN double-header features an intriguing match-up in the East between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers followed by the Minnesota Timberwolves playing host to the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Pacers will look to continue their regular-season success against the Heat as they hope to once again lock down the conference's highest scoring offense. Indiana is first in overall team defense as they hold opponents to just 89.9 points per game on average. They also lead the league in field-goal percentage defense, holding opponents to 41.9 percent shooting. On the other side, Miami leads the league in field-goal percentage, shooting 48.9 percent on average. When these two teams met last time (Jan. 8), Miami came up short 87-77 in their lowest scoring effort of the season. LeBron James had 7 turnovers and the team outside of the big three (LeBron, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh) shot 4-22.
AccuScore has expert picks for every NBA game against the spread and on totals on the NBA Picks Page.
AccuScore simulations have the Pacers as slight 56.1 percent favorites over the Heat. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 92.4-91.5. Indiana has over a 60 percent chance to cover their +2.5 spread. There's a 52.7 percent chance the total score goes over 182.5. The total has gone under in 8 of Indiana's last 9 games at home. Miami is 6-19 straight up in their last 25 games when playing on the road against Indiana.
With all that said, the best bet is still that LeBron will remember the team's poor performance in Indiana just a few weeks ago. He won't commit seven turnovers again. The only stat that worries me is the rebounding. Indiana is projected to out-rebound Miami by 4, all coming in the offensive rebound department. If all those second possessions lead to baskets, that's eight points minimum they'll get from Miami not grabbing defensive boards. The Heat need to get out on some fast breaks early in an attempt to limit any impact Roy Hibbert's size would have.
LeBron James is projected to lead the way for Miami with 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists. He is projected to turn the ball over four times. For Indiana, Paul George and David West are both projected to get 17 points and 8 rebounds.
I'm going to have to disagree with AccuScore on this pick; I would give up the 2.5 points and take Miami.
Prediction- Miami by 8.
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The second game in tonight's double-header has the often-struggling L.A. Lakers visiting the Minnesota Timberwolves. While Minnesota is no powerhouse, this game is still a huge gut-check for the Lakers who cannot afford to give up any more games if they want to sneak in to the playoffs.
AccuScore has the Lakers as slight 51.3 percent favorites over the Wolves. There is no betting line for this game at the present time. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 98-97.
There's really not much to analyze here. Minnesota has little depth with Kevin Love out for the season and let's be honest, there is absolutely no reason for the Lakers to lose this game. They've recently found a recipe that works more often than not, and they'll be ready to get this win. If Minnesota had some talent on the wins, I might think differently; they just don't have anyone, on an individual level, who will bother the Lakers. The Lakers lose this game only if they are complete no-shows on defense.
Kobe Bryant is expected to lead the way for L.A. with 27 points, 9 assists, and 6 rebounds. For Minnesota, Nikola Pekovic is projected to get 17 points, 8 rebounds, and 1 block. As of now, Dwight Howard was not included in the simulations.
Prediction- Lakers by 6
