Euro 2012 Semi-final Picks

Members, the computer had 1 four star pick for Spain vs Portugal (now visible); also, our resident expert has one pick for the Germany vs Italy match on Thursday (still hidden). If you want to see the two picks, log in now and the picks will all appear below. If you’re not a member, join AccuScore by using the coupon code “euro2012” and get 30% off an annual membership. To see more of what is available and the benefits of joining AccuScore check out AccuScore’s semifinal odds analysis and last season’s recap.

Computer 4-Star Pick: Spain at 1.943

Analyst Pick for Germany vs Italy w/Analysis...

Update: Full time - Spain (4)0-0(2) Portugal
Spain wins on penalty kicks 4-2. Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal's fifth penalty takes, is not allowed to even step up to the spot as Cesc Fabregas hits the winner. Spain await the winner of Portugal vs Italy.

Spain vs Portugal line-ups:

Spain: Official(Update)
Casillas, Alba, Arbeloa, Pique, Ramos, Alonso, Busquets, Xavi, Silva, Iniesta, Negredo

Portugal: Official (Update)
Patricio, Pepe, Coentrao, Pereira, Alves, Veloso, Meireles, Moutinho, Nani, Ronaldo, Almeida

Semifinal Simulation Analysis Special

The AccuScore computer simulated this match out 10,000 times and arrived at some interesting probabilities: - Cristiano Ronaldo scored in 40.5% of simulations, scored first in 22.3%, and scores twice 9.1% of the time. He has only a 1.3% chance of scoring a hat-trick however. When Ronaldo scores at least once, Portugal’s chances of winning are 40%. Overall, Portugal’s chances of winning are 21%, and Portugal achieved the feat by averaging 3.5 shots on target on 10 total attempts.

Although Ronaldo is far and away the most likely scorer in the match, Spain possess the next four most likely scorers in the match and 6 of the top 8. Fabregas, Xavi, Silva, and Iniesta are all significantly more likely to score than Nani and everyone not named Cristiano on Portugal. As a result, Spain is 50% to win the match in 90 minutes, according to the computer.