Written by Shahan Ahmed
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I’ll be making picks as the European Championships progress. I have 1 pick for the first round of group play, so expect another set of picks by Tuesday for the 2nd go around. My first expert pick is for the Germany vs Portugal thriller, so if you’re a member, log in now and you will see the pick. If you’re not a member, join using the code “euro2012” and get 30% OFF membership…
Pick: Germany at 2.160
The AccuScore computer is projecting a 2-1 win for Germany. Germany wins 58.4% of simulations and despite a less-than-stellar buildup to the competition, it’s hard to argue against the Germans at better than even odds. The bookmakers are giving Germany a 45.4% chance to win and the computer says that Germany is close to 58.4%.
Preview: The Epic Weekend of Euro 2012
Saturday: Germany vs Portugal
On Saturday, Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal battle Germany, most people’s pick to win the European Championships. In the calendar year 2012, Germany played three matches with only one win. Back in February, Germany lost 2-1 to France in Bremen. Three weeks ago, Germany were hit for 5 goals by Switzerland and humbled to a 5-3 loss in Basel. Eren Derdiyok, who plays in the Bundesliga, scored a hat trick and sent a real warning to the German defense.
In the final warm-up before the tournament, however, Germany put up a solid 2-0 shutout performance with most of the expected starters featuring for the World Cup Semi-finalists.
Portugal have pace. Ronaldo and Nani are wingers that would cause trouble for any side, international or club. However, Portugal have had an even poorer 2012 than Germany. In the three friendless Portugal played in 2012, they were unable to manage a single victory. Even worse, the final warm-up ahead of the tournament was a 3-1 loss to Turkey in Lisbon. That was only last week.
Portugal required a playoff to make the European Championships finals, so this recent lack of form is not unbelievable, but the talent that Portugal possess makes these losses a tad bit puzzling. 3 weeks ago, they failed to score against Macedonia in Portugal. Germany will be a tough test, so Portugal will need to show major improvement since last week’s loss to Turkey.
Sunday: Italy vs Spain
Spain are defending Champions and a team that plays beautiful football. Italy are a team on the rebuild but heavily reliant on some older players. Andrea Pirlo was in absolutely sensational form in Juventus’ championship campaign this season, and he is the heart of the Italian midfield. Whereas Thiago Motta had seemingly taken over national team duties a year ago, Pirlo’s resurgent form has sent the PSG midfielder to the bench. With Buffon, Bonucci, Chiellini, Marchisio, Pirlo, Giaccherini, and Barzagli on the roster, Italy features a heavy Juve influence. Considering the season this group put together for the club, Italy’s prospects of challenging and beating any team, even Spain, are good.
As for Spain, there are only two things to discuss: controversy and comedy. The controversy is in which striker Vincente Del Bosque will chose as the lone frontman. Fernando Torres is the preferred striker due to his experience with the team in the 2008 Championships and the 2010 World Cup. Fernando Llorente is the striker that deserves to start due to his strong domestic campaign. Alvaro Negredo is considered third choice, but he also is a strong and deserving candidate. All things considered, Torres will probably get the start against Italy due to his experience and his form to end the season.
The comedy in Spain comes from Cesc Fabregas. He was Arsenal’s captain and is still considered one of the top midfielders in the world, but he is not a starter for Spain. That is how good this Spanish midfield is. It’s funny that arguably the best midfielder in England comes to Spain and doesn’t belong in the starting 11 at Barcelona or in his own national team. Until Xavi hangs up his boots, Cesc will always be out of place or a substitute. Cesc will play, but unless there is an injury, he will probably not start for the duration of the tournament. Pure comedy.
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