Written by Shahan Ahmed
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Chelsea vs Aston Villa at Villa Park

At this point in the season, we decided to revisit our value picks series for this weekend’s soccer picks. Due to popular demand, we’ve asked our Director of European Football, Mr. Ahmed, to take a look at the upcoming fixtures in England, Spain, Italy, and Germany.

Upon reviewing the odds, he decided to offer a pick for all members and non-members out of the English Premier League

1. Chelsea to win at 1.847
Okay, so a 100 unit wager only returns a profit of 84.7 units, but this is a simulation analysis special. Chelsea is 65.9 percent to win the game at Villa Park. Fernando Torres started in midweek, so Demba Ba is likely to return. Also, Lampard was rested against Spurs, so he should be in the starting eleven. When Lampard starts, Lampard usually scores—from the spot or otherwise.

Also, John Terry has been sitting the past couple matches, so the captain is probably due for a run in the park. The computer says Chelsea has value up until 1.518, and the line has already moved since starting at 1.962. Hazard is questionable, but Mata and Oscar should combine with Moses to form an attacking trident behind Ba.

With the Blues looking to wrap up a Champions League top four finish, motivation is on the menu against the Villains. Villa is coming off back-to-back wins, but Norwich and Sunderland are nowhere near the caliber of Chelsea.

Villa may appear safe from the drop, but that little bit of cushion may lead to complacency.