Written By Shahan Ahmed
Follow him @perfectpass on Twitter
For all the politics of the Premier League being better than La Liga or Serie A being better than the Bundesliga, there is one thing that is uniform in every league: when the two best teams in any country play in a meaningful match, just set a timer and tune in. This is Barcelona versus Real Madrid. This is Juventus versus AC Milan. This is Manchester United versus Manchester City. This is Borussia Dortmund versus Bayern Munich. This is the Bundesliga, and this is worth watching.
Do you love football? Well, if you do love football, you should tune into the Bundesliga on Wednesday. The two best teams in Germany face off for the top spot with only 6 matches remaining. There is no doubt that Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are the two best teams in the Bundesliga, but there is an on-going debate as to which side is the best in Germany. Wednesday night may not settle the matter, but it will certainly leave one side with a bruised face and a bloody lip. The battle for Germany is at hand.
Roman Weidenfeller not only has great hair, but he is also Dortmund’s Captain
When one thinks of German football, the one team that jumps to mind is Bayern Munich, rightfully so. As the most successful club in German history (by a rather large margin), Bayern deserve their place as the most famous and respected club in the country. Bayern have won the German league a record 22 times. Dortmund? Seven times.
Schweinsteiger is back, but Mario Gomez has to score on Wednesday
However, last season, Borussia Dortmund shocked everyone with an incredible first half of the campaign. Dortmund collected 43 points prior to the Christmas break, only bested by the 2005-06 Bayern Munich side that collected 44 points in the first half. On the strength of their strong start, the Borussians eventually trotted to the trophy in 2010-11. En route to the title, Dortmund discarded Bayern Munich with ease in both league meetings, muting FC Bayern supporters’ claims of being the best team in Germany.
In the current 2011-12 campaign, Bayern Munich are 3 points back of Borussia Dortmund with only 6 rounds remaining. Only 3 points. That difference of 3 points can be traced back to the 19th of November, 2011. On that date, Dortmund escaped the Allianz Arena with a 1-0 victory and 3 immensely important points. However, with one Wednesday night victory in Signal Iduna Park, Bayern can level Dortmund on points and instantly jump to 1st place based on goal differential.
This match, however, will not settle the debate of which team is the best team in Germany. Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund will also play each other in the DFB Pokal Final (the German Cup) on the 12th of May in the Olympic Stadium in Berlin. If either side manages a domestic double, the debate will be put to rest without argument. If Dortmund win the league and Bayern win the cup or vice versa, then the debate will rage on until the start of next season.
Expert Advice & Analysis:
Mario Gomez is slightly more likely to score than Robert Lewandowski, but Shinji Kagawa is slightly more likely to score than Arjen Robben. Franck Ribery and Kevin Grosskreutz are both 18% to score. Kuba and Thomas Muller are about even. With the top 8 most likely scorers split down the middle, this is too close a match to pick, even for a computer.
In my opinion, there is no bad pick in this match. When I say there is no bad pick, I mean there is value everywhere for my money. Picking Dortmund to win would be the way I would go with it because they’ve had Bayern’s number recently, and they are the home side. However, if you pick Bayern, 100 units returns a profit of 182 units, which is absolutely amazing for any Bayern Munich match in the Bundesliga. Considering how even this match is, the best pick of all may be the draw at 3.55, but I refuse to hope for a draw.
AccuScore’s computer calculated slight value on Bayern Munich and the Draw, as the computer had Bayern winning 35.4% and the bookies were giving Bayern a 34.7% chance of winning. Also, the computer has the draw at 28.2% versus 27.6% for the Bookies (line%).
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Team Notes: Perisic may start in place of Grosskreutz, which was the case last weekend.
Luiz Gustavo may start in place of Schweinsteiger, as the German international has only started one match since his return from injury. Both teams play a 4-2-3-1 formation.
My pick: Dortmund to win at 2.600
This match is in Dortmund and Dortmund have won the previous 3 meetings between the two (Bayern won the 3 before that). Am I confident in this pick? No, but I had to make a pick, so I did. If you’re curious, though, my picks are 51-27 with 3,510 units of profit on the season. This is a rare free pick, but normally, only members get access to my picks. Try AccuScore membership Free for 7 days and get my hand-picked Expert Picks every weekend and computer picks, player projections, etc for Every Bundesliga, Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, and Champions League match for the rest of the season.
Remember, Bayern aren’t just playing vs the players; these fans are amazing
