La Liga Season Predictions: Not Just Barca & Real

Spanish LaLiga starts this weekend. Traditionally, it has been the most polarized league in Europe where only two teams, FC Barcelona and Real Madrid, have a real chance to win the title. During the last 11 years, these two teams have won 10 titles. The only exception in this list was Atletico Madrid’s championship two years ago. How about this season? Will it be same story of the two giants crushing the competition?

Note: AccuScore has forecasts and analysis for every 2015-16 La Liga match: La Liga Betting Tips

Accuscore, an advanced sports simulation engine, simulated each and every game of the upcoming LaLiga season 10,000 times to calculate and predict the outcome of the 2015-16 season. Of course, there will be more than a week to upgrade squads, as the transfer window does not shut until after the season starts and again opens in January, but most of the core starting players are in place. Unlike some of the pundits who have predicted this season to be copy of the past 11 seasons, our simulations show four teams battling at the top.


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Instead of celebrating the title weeks before the season ends, the 2015-16 league competition will go down to final rounds to crown the winner of LaLiga. Even though most of the games between top four teams are played before May, predicted small differences between the top teams keep the title race very interesting until the ultimate round of the season.

Based on the predictions, it seems that Atletico Madrid will retain the top from that brought the title to them two years ago. Usually, the simulation engine likes teams that haven’t changed too much during the off-season and maintained continuity, but now it seems that additions made by Atletico are real jumps and will help them regain the title.

It is worth mentioning that Madrid derby’s between Atletico and Real and always difficult to predict and could swing 6 points to any direction. This time, simulations predict home win for Atletico and draw in the game that is played in Santiago Bernabeu. Ultimately, this is the difference between first and second place.

Real Madrid will doubtlessly put up a tough fight against its local rival, and a home win in the derby would put both Madrid teams level at season’s end. However, Real Madrid has a new manager and is playing without its longtime captain Iker Casillas, so Real Madrid’s variance can shift greatly based on leadership.

How about then the last year champion Barcelona? The Catalans only administered minor changes to a treble winning squad, but simulations predict them to be only third? Barcelona has higher probabilities for long term injuries due their injury history, playing style and amount of matches they play during the season. This will show at the end of the season as they may not be able to renew the title. Moreover, claiming consecutive titles in LaLiga is not the easy task. It was done last time by Barca five years ago.

One of the key matches for Barcelona will be in third week of the season, when they visit Atletico Madrid in the Spanish capital. Accuscore predicts Atletico to win this game easily, but by winning here, Barcelona would significantly improve its chances of winning back to back LaLiga titles. Taking points directly off the top teams is vital in a league that faces outmatched opposition most weeks.

The fourth team with good chances to take the title after 12 years is Valencia. At the end of the last season, they were fourth as well, but 17 points behind the winners. Now, the predictions show that they might be only few wins away from the title.

In the mid-table, the biggest surprise would be the performance of promoted Real Betis. Our simulations predict them to finish 8th at season’s end. They have set up a real international squad with players from 13 different nationalities. Betis has been an elevator team between LaLiga and Secundo Division, but now it seems that they have shaken off the relegation threat from their shoulders.

The story is not so rosy for the other two promoted teams, Las Palmas and Sporting de Gijon. Both of these teams project to only win a few games and promptly return back to the second division. AccuScore also projects Espanyol to be relegated, as one of the staples of La Liga is due for a horrid season. Based on current predictions, there will be only one team from Barcelona on the highest level of Spanish football next season.