NHL on Tuesday: Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres

On Accuscore’s Tuesday Night NHL special we have two teams from the opposite ends of the league table. The hosts Buffalo Sabres are last in Eastern Conference and 2nd to last in all NHL, while Jets are 2nd in the West and 3rd overall. Their current form is also pointing in the opposite directions, Jets having won 7 of 10 and Buffalo 2 of 10.

Accuscore’s NHL Money Line Side Value picks for the last 7 days have made a profit of +1139 with a record of 28-13!

The up-and-coming Jets have scored the most goals in the Western Conference, with 143 in 43 games, combining an average of ~3.33. They’re 10th in the league in goals conceded, with 2.70 per game. Despite losing no.1 center Mark Scheifele to injury late December, the Jets have been able to rack up points and goals at regular pace. They have struggled, though, on overtime and shootouts, only winning one out of seven. Away from home the Jets have a solid 9-6-8 record and 24 points in 23 games. However, their goal difference is significantly worse on the road than it is at home: 61-67 away and 83-50 at home.

Not much has gone right for the young Buffalo Sabres team, who started the season with high hopes but have fallen from grace early on. Only 29 points in 42 games takes them 2nd to last in all of NHL, only three points above Arizona. They’ve scored least goals in the league, 92 altogether which equals to 2.19 per game. To make matters worse, they’ve also conceded 2nd to most goals with 143, making the average a ridiculous 3.40 per game. Sabres have played 18 games at home, losing 10 straight up, 3 after OT, while only winning five. At home their scoring has struggled even more, as they post 2.0 goals per game, allowing 3.0 on average.

Accuscore’s simulations

Accuscore simulations show no mercy for the Sabres, even at home. The Jets win 66.8 % of all simulations, leaving the Sabres with 33.2 %.

Accuscore is 13-5 and +587 when Winnipeg Jets face a team under .500 winning percentage.

In simulations, the Jets outscore their opponents by exactly 1.0 goals, making the average score 3.4 vs 2.4. The most likely goal-scorer is Winnipeg’s forward Patrik Laine, with 0.6 goals on average. However, most likely to score a point is Jets Blake Wheeler, with 53 % probability. For the Sabres, it all comes down to the talisman center Jack Eichel, who scores 0.34 goals per simulation and gets at least one point with 43 % likelihood.

Analyst Picks:

  • Despite current lopsided odds, Jets ML win presents value with odds at -200 | 1.50 or better
  • Total of 5.5 goes over in 51.0 % of simulations. Odds of -103 | 1.97 or better for the over
  • Goals and points:
    • Laine to score a goal – odds of +122 | 2.22
    • Wheeler to score a point – odds of -112| 1.89
    • Eichel to score a point – odds of +133 | 2.33
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