NFL predictions and win probabilities

Every NFL game is simulated 10,000 times. The simulation produces a win probability for each team and a projected score, and from the projected score a fair spread and a fair total — the numbers we think the game should be priced at.

We then read the live sportsbook lines beside them. A game makes the board as an edge when the market price is worse than our number says it should be, on the spread, the total or the moneyline. Each edge is tiered Silver, Gold or Platinum by the historical record of picks that look like it, and every Gold and Platinum pick is graded at its published price afterwards.

NFL predictions: common questions

What is an NFL computer prediction?

A forecast produced by simulating the game rather than by a tipster's judgement. Ours runs each matchup 10,000 times and reports what happened across those runs.

How is the projected score used?

It gives a fair spread and a fair total. Comparing those with the posted line is what identifies a spread or total bet worth making.

How often do the numbers change?

Through the week as odds move, and again on game day. The page shows the current simulation, not the one from Tuesday.

Probabilities and projections come from AccuScore simulations; prices come from the bookmakers named beside them and move. Nothing here is betting advice. See the graded record.