Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills: NFL Week 17 Analyst Pick
The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will meet up for the second time in three weeks this Sunday with the home side looking to play spoiler. Buffalo – sitting at 8-7 – still have a shot at the postseason and will be treating Sunday’s matchup as a must-win.
We’ve got an interesting forecast in this one as Vegas odds and AccuScore sim data are on opposite sides of the money line.
Vegas Odds
There hasn't been much movement on the spread or total since the lines opened. The total has stayed consistent since opening at 42.5, and the Bills moved up just a half-point since opening as 2.5-point favorites.
Betting Line: Buffalo Bills -3
Total: 42.5
At the time of publication, 61 percent of the public were laying the points and picking the Bills.
52 percent of the action on the total has been on the UNDER.
All of AccuScore's 2017 NFL Picks
• Spreads/Totals/Moneyline Picks: +2583 profit
Our computer has simulated every game 10,000 times like it does every week…Week 17 NFL picks
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Betting Trends
• Buffalo is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games on the road.
• Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last six games vs Miami on the road.
What to Watch For
Shady Carrying the Load: In last week’s 37-16 loss to the New England Patriots, Bills RB LeSean McCoy rushed 17 times for 71 yards and caught five targets for 76 yards. The Bills actually held a 16-13 lead early in the second half before the game got out of hand. Given the fact Buffalo is still in playoff contention, all signs point to McCoy having another heavy workload this week.
McCoy is projected to finish with 90 rushing yards on 19 carries, along with 40 receiving yards on four-to-five catches.
To Start or Not to Start: Dolphins head coach Adam Gase confirmed that QB Jay Cutler will in fact start Sunday's game – but may not necessarily finish the contest. At 6-9, Miami doesn’t have much to play for other than ruining the hopes of a divisional rival. And given the notion that Cutler will be a free agent this summer, the coaching staff just might play it safe and rest veterans. Two weeks ago against Buffalo, Cutler finished with 274 passing yards, 0 TDs and 3 INTs.
Cutler is projected to finish with 208 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.
Analyst's Pick
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