Written by Rohit Ghosh
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AccuScore is 4-0 on ranted teams facing off in Week 1 picks ATS & Totals...All of AccuScore’s latest College Football picks
USC vs Stanford: Pac-12 Analyst Pick
No. 6 USC hosts the no. 14 Stanford Cardinal this Saturday with the Trojans listed as 6.5-point favorites and the total at 54.5.
Stanford has competed well against USC in recent momeory, having won seven of the last nine meetings between the two sides. Stanford's also covered the spread in six of the last seven matchups at the Coliseum.
What to Watch For
Keep an eye on Cardinal RB Bryce Love. He averaged over five yards a carry in last year's matchup with USC, and will have the backfield to himself this time around with Christian McCaffrey in the NFL. Love finished with 180 yards on just 13 carries against Rice in Week 1.
Love is projected to finish with 144 yards on 19 carries and 1 TD. He averages 0.7 TDs per sim. In simulated matchups where Love finished with better-than-average rushing yards and 1 or more rushing TDs, Stanford improves its winning probability from 44 percent to 59 percent.
Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Data
No hot trend alerts here, but AccuScore sim data definitely provides a whole lot more value on the road team than do Vegas odds. At the time of publication, the Trojans are laying 6.5 points; AccuScore sim data, however, has USC favored by just 3 points, a 3.5-point differential between the Vegas odds and sim data.
Stanford's listed at +210 on the money line, indicating a 32 percent chance of happening. AccuScore sim data has Stanford winning about 44 percent of sims; the data would have listed the Cardinal at about +125 on the money line, indicating quite a bit of value on the +210.
Betting Trends
• The OVER is 4-1 in Cardinal last 5 games overall.
• Stanford is 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games in September.
• Stanford is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
• USC is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Analyst's Pick
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