Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Virginia vs. Notre Dame
We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore simulation data are on different sides picking a favorite. Our data looks for hidden value and that's exactly what we have with this weekend's Virginia Tech-Notre Dame matchup in South Bend, IN.
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Vegas Odds vs Simulations
The Fighting Irish head into their Week 13 matchup against the Hokies as slight 1-point favorites, listed at -115 on the money line with Virginia Tech at -105.
The line opened at -1 for Notre Dame and some books have since moved the game to a pick-em.
AccuScore sim data, however, has Notre Dame listed as 3-point underdogs, winning about 43-to-44 percent of simulations.
Simulations suggest quite a bit more value on the road team when comparing odds; AccuScore data would have Notre Dame's money line odds at +130 and V-Tech's at about -125 to -130, making the -105 highly attractive.
The Hokies cover a +1 spread in about 56 percent of simulations, a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
Where Vegas has the total set at 55.5, simulation data has it up at 58, indicating a pick on the OVER.
The total combined score goes OVER 55.5 in close to 56 percent of simulations, another two-star hot trend.
- Virginia Tech is 6-2 straight up (SU) in its last 8 games on the road. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]<>
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Notre Dame's last 7 games at home. [Goes Against AccuScore sim data.]
3 Things to Watch For
Notre Dame heads into this contest following a fairly easy 44-7 Week 12 victory over Army. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, heads into Week 13 after an embarrassing performance at home vs Georgia Tech in a 30-20 loss. Just looking at these variables, the lean goes to the Fighting Irish who ride a week of upward momentum into a marquee matchup at home.
If there's one player to keep an eye on this Saturday, it's Notre Dame's C.J. Sanders. He dazzled us by returning last week's opening kickoff for a score and is a threat to do so again this week. In what projects to be a very close contest, special teams and its ability to make big-time plays becomes a huge determinant in which side comes out on top. Can Sander top his 92-yard return last week?
What ultimately makes Virginia Tech a tough matchup for Notre Dame is their defense. Bud Foster's teams always put pressure on the QB. They have some experience in the back, allowing the Hokies to mix up their coverage and even play some zone when needed. They've limited opponents on third downs and will rely on that unit to get a win this weekend.