Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Florida vs LSU
Florida enters this weekend's matchup with LSU with one goal in mind: return to the SEC conference title game for the second straight year. All the Gators have to do is win and they're the SEC East champs.
Easier said than done, though, with a trip scheduled to Tiger Stadium against a No. 16 LSU squad that's much improved over the past month. Hurricane Matthew delayed the matchup originally scheduled to be played on Oct. 8.
LSU is a heavy 13.5-point favorite at home, with the total moving back-and-forth from 37-to-38.
Florida's getting +425 on the money line, indicating about a 19 percent chance of winning; LSU is listed at -550, indicating about a 85 percent chance of winning.
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What to Watch For
To even stay competitive, Florida has to contain LSU's ground attack led by Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice. The Tigers racked up 390 rushing yards last week against Arkansas. The ground attack - in simulations - averages about 170-to-175 yards per contest.
Florida QB Austin Appleby - a fifth-year graduate transfer - will start for the second straight week. He finished with 201 passing yards against South Carolina in last week's 20-7 win, completing 17 of 21 passes. He's projected to finish with 164 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT this weekend.
Speaking of Appleby, how successful he is could be directly impacted by how red-shirt sophomore Kavaris Harkless performs on the offensive line. The production won't show up on the box score, but Harkless will somehow need to make up for his inexperience to help a injury-riddled unit. This will be his first start after seeing some action against South Carolina last week.
Where's the value?
Whereas Vegas odds have the Tigers as nearly two-touchdown favorites, AccuScore sim data has them listed as 10-point favorites, suggesting value on the visiting side.
Make sure to check out AccuScore's all of AccuScore's college football picks to see best bets and in-depth betting analysis.
Betting Trends
- The Gators are 4-1 straight up (SU) in their last five games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Tigers' last six games when playing the Gators.
- The Gators are 8-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 12 games on the road.
- The Tigers are 5-1 SU in their last six games when playing the Gators at home.
