Written by Rohit Ghosh
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We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore simulations differ or vary greatly in their lines and projections. If Vegas odds indicate a specific side as a clear favorite, but our simulation data tells a different story, there's hidden value in the pick. So, we look at three College Football picks from this week...
College Football Preview & Picks: Week 10 - 2016
Friday 11/4 | Temple @ UCONN
Friday night features a nationally televised matchup between Temple and UConn on ESPN2. The two sides last met in Noveber 2015 when Temple dominated 27-3 at Lincoln Financial Field.
At the time of publication, UConn's a home 'dog, getting 10 points on the spread. The Huskies cover the 10-point spread in about 57 percent of simulated matchups - a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. Simulation data would have the Huskies as just 6-point dogs, not 10.
Whereas Vegas odds indicate UConn has just a 23-to-24 percent chance of winning Friday night's matchup; AccuScore puts that winning percentage closer at about 36-to-37 percent - suggesting some value on the home 'dog.
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Saturday 11/5 | East Carolina @ Tulsa
In what's the most glaring discrepancy in this week's slate of games, the total listed in Vegas for the East Carolina-Tulsa matchup this Saturday differs by 8 points when compared to AccuScore simulation data.
Whereas Vegas odds have the total set at 75, simulation data has it at 67, basically yelling at us to take the UNDER.
The total combined score stays UNDER 75 in about 64-to-65 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of East Carolina's last 14 games overall, and in 5 of East Carolina's last 6 games on the road.
We won't be biased though with these supporting trends; keep in mind that the total has gone OVER in 4 of Tulsa's last 5 games when playing East Carolina.
For All of Saturday's Analysis & Trends: Go to AccuScore's College Football Picks
Saturday 11/5 | Texas @ Texas Tech
Last but not least, we have a matchup in which Vegas odds and AccuScore sim data pick different favorites. Whereas Vegas odds list Texas Tech as a 3.5-point home 'dog vs Texas, AccuScore simulations actually have Texas Tech. win about about 51.5 percent of simulations.
The sim data would have listed them as 1-point favorites at home, not underdogs.
The average score after 10,000 simulations gives the slight edge to Texas Tech, suggesting the sim data puts more value on home field advantage - in this matchup - than do Vegas linemakers.
-Texas is 1-8 against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) in its last 9 games on the road.
-Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games, but just 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall vs Texas.
-The recent head-to-head numbers improve though when the Red Raiders are at home, posting a 2-4 ATS record against Texas in its last six matchups at home.
