Written by Rohit Ghosh
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AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the college football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play.
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Belk Bowl: Miss State vs NC State
Mississippi State enters Wednesday's Belk Bowl as 6-point favorites against North Carolina State, with the total set at 61. The matchup really comes down to how effective NC State's defense can be in containing QB Dak Prescott. It'll be a tall task to expect the Wolfpack defense to stop his arm, but if they can at least limit his production on the ground, the multi-faceted weapon that is Prescott will have a tougher time leading the Bulldogs to a victory.
Bulldogs money-line bettors are required to lay -240 odds, with the Wolfpack getting +200 odds in Las Vegas. The odds in Vegas indicate a 33.3 percent chance of winning for NC State; in AccuScore simulations, however, they won just 29 percent of simulations. AccuScore would have listed NC State's money-line odds at +240, suggesting even more value on the favorites.
Mississippi State covers a 6-point spread in nearly 58 percent of simulations. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 33-23.
With Vegas setting the total at 60.5 or 61 - depending on when and where you get the line - and AccuScore sims having it at 55, the UNDER is a nice wagering opportunity. The total combined score went UNDER 61 in 61 percent of simulated games, a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
When the total betting line has been between 60 to 64.5, AccuScore has gone 62-40 (60.8%, +1800 units) this season. AccuScore has gone 21-16 (56.8%, +340 units) when picking on ACC non-conference totals.
Players to Watch
Both sides feature dual-threat QBs that can dominate a game at any given point. NC State's Jacoby Brissett is projected to finish with 231 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT and a passer rating of 146.8. Brissett also averages 40 rushing yards on 9 carries.
Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott is projected to finish with 335 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT and a passer rating of 139.1. He's also projected to lead the Bulldogs with 92 rushing yards on 21 carries. Purely as a rushing threat, Prescott averages 1.4 TDs per sim.
WR Nyheim Hines is projected to finish with 73 receiving yards on 6 receptions. He averages 0.5 TDs per sim.
Fred Ross is projected to lead Mississippi St. with 90 yards on 7 receptions.
