College football predictions and win probabilities

College football is the widest board of the week, and the one where the market is thinnest — which is exactly why it is simulated the same way as everything else. Every FBS game is run 10,000 times for a win probability and a projected score, and the projection is priced against the posted spread and total.

Because the sport's scoring is lopsided, the spread and the total are where our disagreements with the market show up most often; both are on each game's card, alongside the moneyline. Published Gold and Platinum picks are graded at their published price on the accuracy page.

NCAAF predictions: common questions

Which college football games are covered?

The FBS schedule, updated as kickoff times and lines are posted.

Do you rank teams?

Not as a poll. The ratings behind the simulation are what matter here, and they show up as win probabilities and projected scores for each specific matchup.

Are conference games treated differently?

No — but our published record can be read by conference and by team on the accuracy page, so you can see where the model has and hasn't worked.

Probabilities and projections come from AccuScore simulations; prices come from the bookmakers named beside them and move. Nothing here is betting advice. See the graded record.