AMERICAN LEAGUE
The one real race remaining in the American League, the Central, got closer to wrapping up this weekend. The Tigers swept the Indians outscoring them 22-9 in the 3 game series. Detroit as a result jumped 16 percentage points in playoff probability improving to 81.4 percent postseason likelihood. Cleveland in turn fell 17.2 percentage points, down to 10.2 percent. Neither team has a projected chance of winning the Wild Card so the division title is the only route to the playoffs.
No other team in the AL shifted more than two percent in playoff probability from a week ago. Tampa Bay gained 1.8 percentage points, but still faces 1 in 500 odds to win the East. The other race left undecided is if the Yankees or Red Sox will win the division. New York is the current 53 percent favorite. The winner will likely face Detroit or whoever eventually wins the Central. The Wild Card winner will likely play AL West champion Texas.
| American League |
Weekly Review |
Playoff |
% Chance |
| Team |
15-Aug |
21-Aug |
% Diff |
Win Div |
| Detroit Tigers |
65.4% |
81.4% |
16.0% |
81.4% |
| Tampa Bay Rays |
1.6% |
3.4% |
1.8% |
0.2% |
| Chicago White Sox |
7.2% |
8.4% |
1.2% |
8.4% |
| Texas Rangers |
96.7% |
97.6% |
0.9% |
97.6% |
| Kansas City Royals |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Toronto Blue Jays |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Seattle Mariners |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Oakland Athletics |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Minnesota Twins |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| New York Yankees |
99.0% |
98.6% |
-0.4% |
53.1% |
| Los Angeles Angels |
3.6% |
2.6% |
-1.0% |
2.4% |
| Boston Red Sox |
99.1% |
97.8% |
-1.3% |
46.7% |
| Cleveland Indians |
27.4% |
10.2% |
-17.2% |
10.2% |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee has won 22 of its last 25 games, and appears to have effectively ended the race for the National League Central. The Brewers have opened an 8.5 game lead in the division, and pushed their playoff probability to 99.5 percent likelihood. The Cardinals lost 7.5 percentage points this past week losing 4 times to a pair of the worst teams in the league, the Cubs and Pirates.
With St. Louis collapsing in the race for the Central, Atlanta has taken control of the Wild Card taking six of seven from the two best teams in the West, the Diamondbacks and Giants. The Braves gained 9.2 percentage points, and are now 99.1 percent likely to reach the playoffs despite just a 2.6 percent chance of catching the Phillies for the East crown.
That leaves only one real race in the NL: the West. Arizona has lost five games in a row, but still leads the division by 1.5 games. The Giants have not been able to take advantage however because of a rash of injuries that has crippled an already weak offense. They won only twice this past week, and were unable to gain ground on the D-Backs. Arizona is the favorite to win the division at 57.5 percent. The Giants are 42.4 percent likely to win the West.
| National League |
Weekly Review |
Playoff |
% Chance |
| Team |
15-Aug |
21-Aug |
% Diff |
Win Div |
| Atlanta Braves |
89.9% |
99.1% |
9.2% |
2.6% |
| Milwaukee Brewers |
96.9% |
99.5% |
2.6% |
99.4% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks |
57.3% |
57.6% |
0.3% |
57.5% |
| Washington Nationals |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Houston Astros |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Florida Marlins |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| New York Mets |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Colorado Rockies |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Cincinnati Reds |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| San Diego Padres |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Chicago Cubs |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Philadelphia Phillies |
100.0% |
100.0% |
0.0% |
97.4% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| San Francisco Giants |
47.0% |
42.4% |
-4.6% |
42.4% |
| St. Louis Cardinals |
8.8% |
1.3% |
-7.5% |
0.6% |
