MLB predictions and win probabilities

AccuScore simulates every MLB game 10,000 times before first pitch. Each run plays the matchup out from the starting pitchers down, and the results are what you see on this page: a win probability for each side, a projected run total, and a separate first-five-innings projection for anyone betting the F5 line.

Those projections are then compared with live sportsbook prices. Where our probability is higher than the price implies, the game carries a positive-EV edge, tiered Silver, Gold or Platinum by how much historical evidence stands behind that kind of pick. Every published pick is graded afterwards at the price we published it at — wins and losses both — on our public record.

MLB predictions: common questions

How are AccuScore's MLB predictions made?

By simulation, not opinion. Each game is played out 10,000 times from team and player ratings; the win probability is the share of those runs each team won.

What does a 58% win probability mean?

That the home side won 58% of the simulated games. It is a probability, not a guarantee — and it is only a bet when the price on offer pays more than 58% implies.

Do you show losing picks?

Yes. Every Gold and Platinum pick is graded at its published price and listed on the accuracy page, win or lose.

Probabilities and projections come from AccuScore simulations; prices come from the bookmakers named beside them and move. Nothing here is betting advice. See the graded record.