• 2017 NBA Off-season Analysis: Biggest Move?

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    NBA Offseason: Which Team Made the Best Move?

    A trio of big-time moves have dominated the start of NBA free agency, and a couple of the biggest moves came via trades. Chris Paul moved from the LA Clippers to the Houston Rockets via trade, while the Indiana Pacers traded away Paul George to the Oklahoma City Thunder. In terms of free agency movement, the most meaningful non-Golden State Warriors related move came with Gordon Hayward opting to move to Boston and join the team that finished top of the Eastern Conference. But that the biggest more?

    AccuScore simulated all 82 games of the 2017-18 NBA season using historical data with each of the city-changing player on his previous team and each player in the new city to quantify which of the three players had the greatest impact.

    Chris Paul to Houston:

    First of all, Paul is one of those special players that elevates his teams to elite status. Paul led the Clippers to 50 or more wins in every full season he played in LA, and his arrival at the Rockets promises to have a positive impact. After simulating out the season before and after the Paul trade, AccuScore calculated that CP3 gives Houston between three and four extra wins for the 2017-18 season.

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    Paul George to Oklahoma City:

    George is considered an All-Star caliber talent that ranks as one the top 20 players in the league. After informing Indiana that he intended to move on, likely to the LA Lakers, when his contract expired in the summer of 2018, the Pacers found a trade partner in the Thunder. So what was the impact of the George trade? According to AccuScore, George’s arrival next to Russell Westbrook pushes the Thunder to an extra four to five wins. Yes, George’s arrival in Oklahoma City has a greater impact that Paul’s arrival in Houston, and the computer goes so far as to say that Oklahoma City will push into the top four teams in the West, as the Clippers and Jazz have taken clear steps back during the offseason.

    Gordon Hayward to Boston:

    Interestingly, Hayward’s big move to Boston doesn’t appear to have any notable impact on the team’s win-loss record. Of course, Boston finished with the top record in the Eastern Conference in 2016-17, so one would imagine that the Celtics’ lack of notable improvement is a result of the Celtics already being a well-oiled machine.

    Conclusion:

    George going to Oklahoma City is the more impactful of the three NBA offseason moves, while Hayward’s free agent exit to Boston appears to be the least impactful. Paul, though, is still worth nearly as many extra wins as George.

  • NBA Monday Night: Analyst's Top 2 Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh

    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NBA Monday Night: Analyst Picks

    Monday night features a pair of games that should attract some wagering action, as the Golden State Warriors head to Oklahoma City in Game No. 1 followed by the LA Clippers hosting the NY Knicks.

    GSW @ OKC

    The Warriors opened as 4-point favorites, with the total set at 219.5. At the time of publication, the Warriors are 2-point favorites, with the total up to 221.

    Warriors Betting Trends

    • Golden State is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games against a team with a winning record.
    • Golden State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games and 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall.
    • The UNDER is 35-16 in Golden State's last 51 road games.

    Thunder Betting Trends


    • Oklahoma City is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against a team with a winning record.
    • OKC is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 home games.
    • OKC is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.

    NYK @ LAC

    The Clippers will look to build from their dominating 108-78 victory over the Cavaliers Saturday as they head into Monday's matchup vs New York as an 11-point favorite. The total is set at 215.5.

    Knicks Betting Trends

    • New York is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.
    • New York is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a loss of more than 10 points.
    • New York is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall

    Clippers Betting Trends
    • LA is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games.
    • LA is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against a team with a losing record
    • LA is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.

    Analyst’s Picks
    AccuScore’s analyst has one pick for each game previewed above, but these two picks are only for members, so MEMBER: Sign in at the top right now! Non-members, use coupon code NBA20 to get 20% off membership: Join Today!

    AccuScore has expert picks against the spread, on the moneyline and on Totals for every game on the calendar on Monday: NBA Picks

  • Russell Westbrook for MVP - AccuScore Analysis

    Written by Rohit Ghosh

    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Russell Westbrook: MVP Simulation Analysis

    How would the Oklahoma City Thunder -- who seem to be succeeding despite being a so-called one-man team -- fare without their ever-so-prolific leader?

    AccuScore simulated OKC's final six games in two sets of simulations: with Westbrook and without Westbrook. Surprisingly, though, there wasn't a noticeable difference with four of the six remaining games being played on the road.

    For example, with Westbrook, OKC is projected to squeeze by the Milwaukee Bucks on 4/4 with a two-point victory; with Westbrook out, that projected win percentage drops about six points and simulates to an approximate tie.

    Let's dive deeper into some of the numbers though, since simply stating Westbrook is important to his team is an exercise in futility.

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    Heading into Tuesday's matchup with Milwaukee, the Thunder are 18-26 against teams in playoff positioning. Of Westbrook's 40 triple-doubles, 19 of them have come against playoff teams. So, nearly half of his triple-doubles have come against the top 50-some odd percentage of teams in the league.

    And even more importantly, he has triple-doubles in 12 of his team's 18 wins vs playoff-positioned teams. Although the percentages were a little higher prior to OKC's 110-95 loss to San Antonio on March, the Thunder have won a shade over 40 percent of their matchups with playoff teams.

    When Westbrook notches a triple-double in those games, the winning percentage this season against playoff opponents shoots up past sixty percent.

    He's that important, especially in terms of OKC staying competitive against better opponents.

    How'd he fare against them last time?

    Westbrook finished with 30 points, six assists and seven rebounds in a loss to Milwaukee on Jan. 2.

    OKC has won two-of-three matchups with Memphis this season, with Westbrook averaging nearly 28 points, 8 assists and 10-plus rebounds in those three games.

    Following Memphis, OKC heads to Phoenix - a Suns team that Westbrook has torched this season for 41.7 points, 13.7 assists and 13.7 rebounds per game in three matchups (2-1).

    OKC then finishes the regular season hosting Denver, against whom Westbrook has averaged 34 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists in two wins this season.