• 2017 Baseball Futures - Win/Loss MLB Totals & Value Picks

    Written by AccuScore Staff

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    2017 Baseball Win Totals – Futures Picks

    The 2017 Major League Baseball season is set to start, and just in time, AccuScore has futures odds, picks and analysis for every single team. Even though a pitch has yet to be tossed, AccuScore has simulated every game 10,000 times to arrive at projected win and loss totals for each and every game.

    Along with AccuScore’s win totals, our analysts dug up the Vegas win totals lines to place them side by side with AccuScore’s projections to figure out where the best value futures picks sit.

    American League Totals

    The Cleveland Indians are projected to finish with the best record in the AL, as the Tribe comes off a trip to the World Series, where Cleveland blew a 3-1 lead. While AccuScore projects the Boston Red Sox to finish with a better mark than the Indians, neither forecast is off by a massive margin from the Vegas lines.

    However, the American League offers a great deal of value picks. In the AL Central, the computer is high on the Minnesota Twins with a 7.1 win total margin between the computer and Vegas, as the Twins look good value for the OVER 70.5 wins.

    Likewise, the computer is not sold on the Detroit Tigers, and the Under holds value at the 85.5 wins. AccuScore projects that win total to be closer to 79.1 wins, which is a difference of 6.4 wins.

    In the American League, the Tigers and the Twins offer the most value, though the computer thinks the Baltimore Orioles line at 84.5 is also a bit high.

    AL Win Totals Value Picks
    Twins – OVER 70.5
    Tigers – UNDER 85.5
    Orioles – UNDER 84.5

    AL Futures Picks – 2017 Baseball Win-Loss totals
    AccuScore has updated and improved its MLB picks system algorithm, and Sunday’s Opening Day Picks are already on the site with a free New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays game forecast, with all picks and player projections included: Click here for Opening Day Picks

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    National League Totals

    Both Vegas and the AccuScore computer agree that the best team in baseball is the Chicago Cubs. Vegas sets the Cubs’ line at 95.5 wins, and AccuScore projects the Cubs to win 97.6 games. While there’s value there, there’s more value elsewhere in the NL. Even at only 73.5 wins, the computer projects that the Cincinnati Reds’ line isn’t low enough. The computer says the Reds will only fail to break the 70-wi mark with a projected win total of 68.2 games on Opening Day.

    In terms of other value opportunities in the NL, both Vegas and the computer agree that the New York Mets will finish second behind the Washington Nationals, but AccuScore projects the Nationals to win 84.7 games compared to Vegas’ line of 89.5 games. The computer identifies this as the value pick for the NL East.

    In the NL West, the Colorado Rockies project to win 74.5 games but face a line of 79.5 wins. The computer thinks there’s value there.

    NL Win Totals Value Picks
    Reds – Under 73.5
    Mets – UNDER 89.5
    Rockies – UNDER 89.5

    NL Futures Picks – 2017 Baseball Win-Loss totals

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  • 2017 World Series Predictions, Baseball Playoffs Odds

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    2017 World Series Odds and MLB Playoffs Predictions

    The 2017 MLB regular season was completed on Sunday and bookmakers in Vegas have updated their odds for the 10 teams that reached the playoffs. Before the season, the defending champion Chicago Cubs had 3-1 odds to win, which means that bookmakers believed that their chances were about 25% to repeat as World Series champs after last year’s triumph. Now, that number has dropped, but which teams are favorites to win World Series right now?

    The table below shows current World Series odds from Westgate Las Vegas Super Book with Accuscore’s predictions side-by-side. These predictions are based on 10,000 simulations of every postseason game.

    All of AccuScore's Baseball Expert Picks: MLB Playoffs Game Picks

    2017 Baseball Playoffs Predictions and Odds

    As we can see, Cleveland and the LA Dodgers have jumped up to the clear favorites to win this World Series. Their combined win probability based on odds from Westgate is close to 60%. However, Accuscore’s simulations are exactly in agreement with those numbers. Based on Accuscore, the Houston Astros will continue pounding runs in the postseason, and they are predicted to be World Series winners this year. There is also some value for the Washington National’s to go on a title run when Accuscore and Westgate numbers are analyzed. As many times earlier, we can find value for long shots as well, but if the probability to win the bet is under 5% once a year, that rarely generates profitable cash flow in your betting fund.

    The New York Yankees could be the dark horse in ALDS, if they perform as predicted against Minnesota in Tuesday’s Wild Card game. The series between Cleveland and the New York Yankees can be evenly matched, as many estimate, and there is good chance for a Yankee’s surprise. Outside of that, we expect that Washington, Houston and Los Angeles will proceed to the league championship series without game 5s being necessary.

    Accuscore will update World Series probabilities after division series and league championship series

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  • Analyst Pick: Cubs vs Nationals

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Tuesday Night Baseball: Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals

    The Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals are back in action Tuesday night with star pitchers Jake Arrieta (7-5 , 4.36 ERA) and Max Scherzer (8-5 , 2.09 ERA) set to take the mound. The Cubs held on to a 5-4 victory Monday night despite a late Nats rally that saw Washington score four runs in the ninth.

    The line opened with the Nats listed at -158 on the money line and the total set at 8.

    All of Tonight's Expert: baseball Picks (includes free full forecast for Cubs vs Nationals)

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    Cy Young Clash

    Scherzer (8-5) leads the Majors with a 2.09 ERA, entering Tuesday's matchup with 145 strikeouts - good for No. 2 in the Majors. The right-hander has notched double-digit strikeouts in his past six games.

    Arrieta (7-5) has a 4.36 ERA this year, but is coming off his best start of the season, giving up just one run in seven innings in a win over the Marlins on Thursday. In his past three career starts vs the Nats, Arrieta has given up a total of five runs in 17 innings. Scherzer has a career 3.19 ERA vs. the Cubs.

    Recent Trends vs AccuScore Simulation Data

    Depending on when/where you get the total, there's quite a bit of value when comparing to AccuScore sim data.

    The total the public's getting is either 8 or 7.5; AccuScore simulations, however, have that number set at 9, indicating a pick on the OVER.

    The total combined score goes OVER 7.5 in nearly 60 percent of simulations. Considering most wagers on the total are listed at -110, which indicates about a 53 percent chance of happening, a 60 percent probability of something happening is fairly attractive. The only drawback? Looks like our data is going against some betting trends.

    Relevant Betting Trends

    • Chicago is 0-4 in Arrieta's past four road starts vs. teams with a winning record.
    • Washington is 5-1 in Scherzer's past six starts on five days of rest.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of Scherzer's last seven starts.

    Analyst's Pick

    Chicago's 17-21 on the road - I'll go with Washington and the UNDER.

  • Analyst Pick: Dodgers vs Diamondbacks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks – 4th of July

    July 4th MLB action features a slate of must-watch games, but the night caps off in Los Angeles as the 52-31 Arizona Diamondbacks head to Chavez Ravine for a matchup with Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. L.A. is a home favorite, listed at about -270 on the money line, with Arizona getting +245.

    Dodgers vs Diamondbacks

    Don't let the odds fool you - this matchup projects to be a lot more competitive than initial Vegas odds indicate. The Diamondbacks have 18 of their 31 losses on the road this season, but enter this series with tons of momentum, coming off a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies. The Dodgers have a 2.5-game lead over the Diamondbacks in the NL West heading into Tuesday's matchup.

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    Betting Trends

    • The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 road games.
    • The Diamondbacks are 18-6 in their last 24 overall.
    • The Diamondbacks are 18-6 in their last 24 games on grass.
    • The UNDER is 7-1 in the Dodgers' last 8 games following a loss.
    • The Dodgers are 46-15 in their last 61 home games.
    • The Dodgers are 25-9 in their last 34 games played on a Tuesday.

    What to Watch For

    Kershaw makes his 18th start of the season, with Patrick Corbin (6-7, 4.76 ERA) on the mound for Arizona. Corbin got the start against the Dodgers on April 15, giving up 5 runs (3 earned) in six innings of a 8-4 loss. Kershaw -- despite his 12-2 record with a 2.32 ERA on the season -- has struggled this year. Well, relatively. He has already given up a career-high 17 home runs, but seems to be getting back on track in his past few starts.

    Keep an eye on Dodgers catcher and second baseman Austin Barnes. He had a strong outing against Corbin last time around with a HR against the lefty. Barnes heads into Tuesday's matchup after putting up 7 RBIs and 2 HRs on Friday vs San Diego.

    Best Bet(s)

    Looking at who's on the mound for L.A., it's tough to suggest any pick other than the Dodgers winning this game. The Dodgers win approximately 65 percent of simulated matchups.

    Trends vs Data

    AccuScore sim data suggets taking the OVER in this game - the total combined score goes OVER 7.5 in over 57 percent of simulations.

    Recent trends between these two teams, however, suggest the opposite. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Diamondbacks' last 6 games when playing on the road against the Dodgers.

    With Arizona's relative struggles on the road and Kershaw on the mound, my lean would be on the UNDER.

  • Analyst Pick: Red Sox vs Blue Jays

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    Analyst Pick: Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

    The Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays Monday in a matchup that opened with the home side slightly favored at -130 on the money line (ML) in Vegas, indicating a 56.5 percentage chance of winning. The line settled to -123 at the time of publication, with the Blue Jays getting +113 money line odds. The total is set at 9.5.

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    Pitching Matchup

    Stroman heads into Monday's matchup with a 9-5 record and an ERA of 3.28. He has 93 strikeouts over the 112.1 innings he's pitched this season, allowing about 9.1 hits per 9 innings pitched. Toronto's bullpen hasn't been relatively as great with an ERA of 4.29. The team overall is No. 18 in the majors with an ERA of 4.57.

    Boston's Eduard Rodriguez heads into this matchup with a 4-2 record and an ERA of 3.54. He has given up 49 hits in the 61 innings pitched this season, allowing about 7.2 hits per 9 innings pitched. He's backed up by a bullpen that has an ERA of just 3.08, with the team overall allowing 8.6 hits per nine innings. They're No. 3 in the majors with a team ERA of 3.79.

    Key Stat No. 1: Boston is No. 2 in opponent strikeouts per walk at 1.98.

    Key Stat No. 2: The Red Sox rank No. 2 of 30 MLB teams in opponent strikeouts per nine innings (7.12), a few ticks behind league-leading Houston (6.86).

    Key Stat No. 3: Boston is No. 4 in terms opponent stolen base percentage; Toronto, on the other hand, is ranked No. 28 of 30 in the same category.

    What to Watch For

    Stroman has been fairly impressive this season for Toronto, entering this matchup after giving up just one run and six hits his last time out (July 8). He was favored slightly on the money line (-137) and came through for bettors. Batters are connecting on his pitches less than 32 percent of the time, and just a shade over 18 percent of his fly balls end up as HRs.

    Betting Trends

    Toronto is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Boston.
    • Toronto is 2-5 in their last 7 vs. the AL East.
    • Toronto is 6-15 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter.
    • Toronto is 6-13 in Stroman’s last 19 road starts.
    • Boston is 11-4 in their last 15 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
    • Boston is 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last five starts at home.
    • The UNDER is 18-6-3 in Toronto's last 27 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
    • The UNDER is 6-2 in Boston's last eight home games.
    • The UNDER is 4-0 in Rodriguez’s last 4 home starts.
    • The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Rodriguez’s last 22 starts vs. the AL East.
    • The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two sides in Boston.

    Analyst's Pick

    Boston averages 4.8 runs per game in 2017; Toronto averages 4.16. The averages for this current season indicate a pick on the UNDER.

    The Red Sox are struggling on offense over the last week or so, and best of all, the UNDER is a our-star AccuScore hot trend pick.

    I'll take the UNDER.

  • Baseball's Betting Strategy: Top Trends - May 2017

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    Top MLB Trends: May 2017

    Understanding how to read the MLB Archives is the most important skill when it comes to strategizing for a sport like baseball that has so many games, possibly too many games. As we approach the end of May and head into the dog days of summer, AccuScore took a moment to analyze what is working with regards to moneyline and side value picks.

    Side Value Trend: 122-127, 49% + 1,533 on picks when the home team is between 45% and 55% to win.

    What does this trend mean? Simple: When it comes to close games, AccuScore’s Side Value picks tend to perform and turn a profit. Similarly, AccuScore’s best moneyline trend falls in a similar category:
    Moneyline Picks: 136-113, 54.6% +1,177 where the home team is between 45% and 55% to win.

    Again, when it comes to close games, AccuScore tends to get it right and turn a profit. In fact, AccuScore’s most profitable range is -109 to +109. On the moneyline, AccuScore is 77-62, 55% + 1175 in games where the home team has odds of -109 to +109. Likewise, AccuScore is 77-63, 55% +991 on side value when the home team has odds of -109 to +109.

    Tonight's MLB Picks: There are a couple games on tonight's schedule that fall into the aforementioned category, which means these trends can apply tonight: Click Here for All of today's MLB Picks

    Baseball Hot Trends - May 2017
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    More May Baseball Hot Trends

    Top Team Trend: Side Value
    New York Yankees: 10-1, 90.9% + 1002 on all side value picks when NYY is a Vegas road underdog

    Top Team Trend: Moneyline
    Baltimore Orioles: 15-2, 88.2% +1117 on all moneyline picks when Vegas lists the Orioles as a road underdog.

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  • Dodgers vs Angels - Analyst Preview

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    Dodgers vs Angels: Analyst Preview

    Only eight games on the MLB slate for a Monday? Usually there’s more action to pick from, but there’s some quality action in the evening games as the interleague showdown between the Angels and Dodgers takes center stage at Chavez Ravine. The Angels are 38-28 against the Dodgers since 2005, entering this year's Freeway Series after winning the 2016 affair 3-1.

    Left-hander Rich Hill and right-hander Ricky Nolasco are set to face off with the Dodgers entering the matchup having won 10 straight games.

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    Odds vs Sim Data

    Just given how the Dodgers are playing of late, it's no surprise they're heavy run-and-a-half favorites at home, listed at -215 on the money line.

    Vegas odds suggest the Dodgers have over a 68 percent change of winning Monday night; AccuScore simulation data seems to agree with that notion with the home side winning about 63-to-64 percent of matchups.

    The Dodgers -- despite the lack of overall value -- are a four-star hot trend pick on the money line.

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    Betting Trends

    • The Angels are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games overall.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Angels’ last seven games.
    • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Dodgers’ last 16 games.
    • The Dodgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at home.

    Dodgers vs Angels

    Starting Pitchers

    Hill has recorded 40 innings pitched heading into Monday’s matchup, logging a 4.73 ERA with four wins in seven games. He got the win his last time out allowing just one run over five innings against the New York Mets. Historically, he has a 6.23 ERA in six career appearances against the Angels.

    Nolasco, on the other hand, hasn't had a whole lot of success this year, recording just 2 wins in 11 games with a 5.23 ERA. The Angels have lost the last 10 games in which Nolasco got the start; he enters Monday's matchup giving up the most HRs in the American League. Nolasco has given up 23 home runs in 84 1/3 innings.

  • Dodgers vs Cubs - NLCS Game 3

    Written by Rohit Ghosh

  • Dodgers vs Giants: Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Dodgers vs Giants: Sunday Analyst Pick

    Dodgers vs Angels

    The San Francisco Giants are already looking ahead to next season, already 25 games below .500 and in no position to make matters better in 2017. So for now, they'll look to get their satisfaction by trying to slow down the rival Los Angeles Dodgers who are now 33.5 games ahead of the Giants in the standings.

    Madison Bumgarner (1-4, 3.38 ERA) for SF; Ryu Hyun-Jin (3-6, 4.17 ERA) for the Dodgers.

    Let's take a look at there there might be some value in this contest.

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    Preview

    Burgarner gets the start in place of right hander Matt Cain, and it'll take one of his legendary performances to get the win Sunday. The Giants were limited to just four hits and 1 run on Saturday, with their bullpen being practically non-existant - pitching just 2 2/3 innings so far in the series.

    For the Dodgers, all eyes will be on Ryu and whether or not he can manage the game well enough to allow the L.A. offense to take over. In his only start against the Giants this year, he allowed 1 run over 6 innings in 1-2 loss.

    The Dodgers are heavily favored on the money line (-265) and rightfully so. The Dodgers win close to 67 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

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    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sims

    Is the -265 worth the odds on the money line? While the Giants are expected to keep the game close, a look at the probabilities confirms the confidence AccuSore data has in the home side.

    A -265 on the money line indicates about a 72-to-73 percent chance of winning. AccuScore data -- completely separate from Vegas odds -- has that winning probability around 67 percent. As such, AccuScore would have listed the Dodgers' ML odds at about -205, making the -265 not very attractive.

    Betting Trends vs AccuScore Hot Trends
    • SF is 1-6 in its last seven vs the NL West.
    • Dodgers are 44-12 in their last 56 home games.
    • The OVER is 7-2-2 in SF's last 11 Sunday games.
    • The OVER is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last five home games.

    Here we're specifically focused on the total. Recent trends as you can see suggest taking the OVER. The Dodgers get runs on the board at home -- clearly -- and Ryu on the mound indicates the Giants' bats might get going. Ryu has averaged just 5.1 innings pitched in the last month, struggling to go deep in his starts.

    Whereas Vegas has their total set at 9, AccuScore data actually has it at 8, indicating a pick on the UNDER. The total combined score stays below 9 in over 53 percent of simulations, a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The majority of Ryu's games this season have finished below the total.

    Analyst's Pick
    Dodgers get the sweep, and the UNDER.

  • Friday's Analyst Pick: Cardinals vs Pirates

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    MLB Friday: Cardinals at Pirates

    Friday features a slate of MLB action and it's about time. Monday and Tuesday might have been entertaining in terms of fanfare, but regular game action means one thing - attractive wagering opportunities.

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    Betting Trends

    Let's take a look at a matchup and what stands out.

    Cardinals @ Pirates | Friday, 4:05 PM Pacific

    The Pittsburgh Pirates -- assuming weather doesn't become a factor -- will host the St. Louis Cardinals with the home side slightly favored (-120) and the total set at 8. The Cards have Mike Leake (6-7, 3.12 ERA) on the mound, matched up across from the Pirates' Gerrit Cole (7-7, 4.43).

    From the St. Louis side, Leake enters the matchup with 74 strikeouts over his 109.2 innings pitched this season; he has given up 102 hits. He allows 8.4 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.96. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.12. As a team, St. Louis allows 8.5 hits per nine innings, striking out 8.4 batters. They are 6th in the league in team earned run average at 3.97.

    For Pittsburgh, Cole has 94 strikeouts over the 107.2 innings he has pitched, giving up 113 hits.. He's also given up 113 hits. He allows 9.4 hits per nine innings. As a team, Pittsburgh is 12th in the league in team ERA 4.19.

    All of AccuScore's Expert Baseball Picks

    Analyst's Pick: Pittsburgh has a slight edge being at home, but their bullpen ranks No. 23 in the league in terms of giving up HRs. With AccuScore data heavily suggesting the UNDER, the lean is on the Cards and the UNDER. St. Louis is 7-2 straight up (SU) in their last nine against Pittsburgh.

    Another trend that points towards going with AccuScore's St. Louis pick is the fact that Pittsburgh struggles after wins this season. They're 1-5 SU in their last six games after a win.

    Cards get the slight upset win on the road with the total staying UNDER 8

  • How To: AccuScore's Baseball Betting System

    Also, please see: AccuScore's NFL and NCAA Football System Explained

    How to Use AccuScore's Baseball Picks

    New to AccuScore or haven't been here in a while? We got you. Here's how AccuScore works:

    First of all, since we're talking about baseball picks, click on "Baseball" at the top of the any AccuScore.com as demonstrated with the giant red arrow below:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Boom! Now you're on the baseball picks page. If you're not logged in as a member, you'll see one free game listed and all the other games will be shaded out. So, it's best to log in here and get full access to all the games. Click "Login" at the top right of the page, as demonstrated by the green arrow in the image below.

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    And so, now that you're in member mode, there are two primary ways to read AccuScore's picks. The graph view is the default view with the shaded in circle, but you can also enter the grid mode by clicking on the purple arrow in the image above.

    Graph Mode vs Grid Mode

    The default Graph Mode shows two circles. The Outside circle shows AccuScore's simulations results, i.e. Moneyline Picks. Meanwhile, the inside circle displays the current Las Vegas odds converted into a percentage. The visual of the odds and AccuScore's percentages side-by-side allows you to see the Side Value as the dark blue shaded portion of the inner circle. Hovering over the dark region, you can see the amount of Side Value the computer calculates, as displayed in the image below:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Above the circles, one finds star-ratings for the moneyline pick and for the Side Value pick. These stars rate from 1 to 4, with a 4-star pick meaning that a significant number of historic trends increases the computer's confidence in that particular pick.

    Below the circles in the shaded bottom third of the box, there is an Over/Under pick. In the example above, the computer's pick is listed as "Under" with the total runs line set at 8.5 runs. Next to "8.5" AccuScore shares its confidence in the pick by detailing that 59.4% of AccuScore's simulations went Under 8.5 runs.

    Next to the Totals pick, AccuScore also lists a Run Line pick. In the example above, AccuScore's pick is the New York Mets with a +1.0 runs handicap. In this case, only 44.9% of simulations ended with the Mets winning outright, while 25.1% of simulations ended with the Mets losing by exactly one run and the Nationals winning by 2 or more runs 38.0% of the time. As such, the pick is Mets +1, as this is the most likely outcome.

    Grid Mode: Ode to the Old Times

    Go back a couple images and the purple arrow shows you how to enter Grid Mode. Once there, You'll see something like this:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    The grid system is built on showing value and picks via numbers instead of images. So, here's the breakdown, reading left to right on the image above:

    "Date" and "Team" should be pretty self-explanatory.

    Then, we get into "Acc Sim%" - This is AccuScore's simulation results. In the example above, Kansas City won 36.4% of simulations, while Seattle won 63.6% of AccuScore's simulations.

    The "Odds%" column is Las Vegas moneyline odds converted to a percentage. Seeing the percentages side-by-side shows you where the value is. In the Seattle vs Kansas City game, AccuScore's 63.6% for Seattle to win is greater than Vegas's 56.4% to win, so there is value in picking Seattle on the moneyline in this example.

    "PS" is short for Point Spread, which means the handicap pick. The picks are listed in order: "Seattle -1.0, CHW +1.0, etc."

    "OU" on top of "ACC OU" is the Over/Under, or Totals, pick. The top row displays the current Total Runs line in Las Vegas. Below it, AccuScore lists the computer's calculated line. If it's higher than the Las Vegas line, the pick is Over. If it's lower than the Vegas line, the pick is Under. Simple.

    The Grid view also allows you to sort picks by star ratings for Moneyline, Side Value or Totals.

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    By clicking on the yellow arrow (below) in either mode, you can enter the full game forecast. The blue arrow points to the written free preview and trends available for all games.

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Inside the game preview, you can adjust the handicap lines and adjust the Over/Under lines to see AccuScore's percentages at any different line within reason. Using the red arrow in the image below, you can use AccuScore's extra tools to adjust Handicap Lines, Totals lines and view player props. The green arrows below display how to use the tool to adjust lines.

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System


    Want more?

    AccuScore forecasts also feature fantasy data, team trends and an archive of all of AccuScore's past picks for download. Just scroll down in the forecast to see even more expert analysis and trends:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    July 2017 - Top Baseball Trends

    Entering July, here's a quick rundown of AccuScore's top trends:

    • All Moneyline Pick when Home Team is 45% to 55% to win in Simulations:
    – 258-206 55.6% +2,540 units profit

    • All Side Value Picks when Vegas Lists Home Team from -109 to +109:
    – 143-116, 55% +2138

    • NY Yankees – All Side Value Picks as Vegas Road Underdog:
    – 15-3, 83.3% +1321

    • Baltimore Orioles – All Moneyline Picks as a Road Underdog
    – 23-7, 76.6% +1,091.

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  • MLB Wednesday: Analyst Free Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    Baseball: Analyst's Odds Analysis

    We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore sim data don't match up, and we've got exactly that sort of a situation in today's Indians-Twins matchup. At the time of publication, the Twins are home underdogs, getting +150 to +155 on the money line. Most books have the total set at 9.5, with a few still at 9.

    More MLB Analysis: AccuScore's Baseball Expert Picks

    Betting Trends vs AccuScore Sims

    All signs point to Cleveland taking this, as evidenced by the Vegas odds. Even look at some of the applicable betting trends:
    - Cleveland is 4-0 straight up (SU) in their last four road games, and 4-0 in last four against right-handed pitchers.
    - Minnesota is 0-4 on the other hand in their last four against a pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15. Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco heads into his 24th start of the season with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP.
    - Whereas the Vegas money line odds indicate the Twins have about a 40 percent chance of winning the matchup, AccuScore sim data has the Twins winning 47 percent of the time.

    AccuScore would have listed the home side at +110, suggesting quite a bit of value on the +150 listed in most books. The Twins winning Wednesday’s matchup is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

    What the data primarily indicates is the fact the sims expect a more competitive game than do Vegas odds. The Twins cover a +1.5 run spread in over 60 percent of sims.

    Pick on the Total

    AccuScore sims have the total set at 8, an average of 1.0-1.5 runs lower than the total set in Vegas – indicating a pick on the UNDER. As a whole, the Twins have been outscored by 50 runs this season and their bats haven’t had a lot of momentum of late.

    Expecting a close game based on the AccuScore sims – and the UNDER.

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  • Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland A's Trend

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Baseball action continues as we hit hump day with 15 games on the MLB slate. We're always interested when Vegas odds differ from AccuScore simulation data and there are multiple games like that today.

    Let's take a closer look at one such matchup.

    All of Today's AccuScore Baseball Picks (Includes free full forecast of the Cubs vs Braves)

    Tampa Bay @ Oakland

    Jacob Faria takes the mound for the Rays, matched up across from the A's Sonny Gray -- who just might be pitching his last start with Oakland. Faria gets the start Wednesday with a chance to get a 3-0 sweep of Oakland this week.

    Why are we interested in this matchup? Vegas odds indicate the A's as slight favorites; our data, however, suggests a pick on the road 'dogs.

    The Lean Towards Faria -- Simply put, he's been fantastic this season with an ERA of 2.00 and a WHIP of 0.98. With seven quality starts already this season, it's clear that he's figured out how to stump batters. He's projected to pitch close to seven winnings with an ERA of 2.5 Wednesday.

    Value Pick: Whereas the odds indicate Tampa Bay as the underdog, our data has them winning over 55 percent of simulated matchups. A quality start by Faria increases the Rays' winning probability from 55 percent to 72 percent.

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    OVER/UNDER Betting Trend

    The UNDER is 8-2 in Oakland's last 10 games after a loss. They came up short 4-3 on Tuesday vs TB.

  • Top Baseball Betting Trends - June 2017

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    Top Baseball Trends: June 14, 2017

    The NBA season is over. The NHL season is over. Football may be here in the blink of an eye, but the dog days of summer provide the opportunity to play long trends and focus on Major League Baseball. AccuScore pointed out some rather glaring trends at the end of May.

    At the time, we pointed out two top trends: one for Side Value Picks and one for Moneyline picks.

    First, Side Value Picks when the home team was between 45% and 55% to win were +1,533 units profit at the end of May. A couple weeks later, that same trend is now + 2598 units profit, nearly 70% increase in profits.

    Second, Moneyline picks where the home team was favored between 45% and 55% were +1,177 units profit. A couple weeks later, that same trend is now +2055 units profit, which is an increase of nearly 75%. We pointed to two major trends we saw as profitable and then told everyone who would listen about them. We can only do so much.

    Tonight's MLB Picks: There are a couple games on tonight's schedule that fall into the aforementioned categories, which means these trends apply tonight: Click Here for All of today's MLB Picks

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    Here are a few NEW Scorching Hot Trends...

    Top Baseball Trends: June 2017

    Vegas Home Favorite: AccuScore Moneyline picks - 380-265, 58.9% +2,399
    Vegas Home Underdog: AccuScore Side Value Picks – 146-146, 50% +794
    Vegas O/U Line is 11+: AccuScore Totals Picks – 14-6-2, 70% +740

    Top Baseball Team Trends:

    Baltimore Orioles: 21-2, 91.3% +1,483 on all moneyline picks when Vegas lists the Orioles as a road underdog. (This trend was +1,117 in May’s Top Trends)

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  • Yankees vs Rays: MLB Analysis

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NY Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

    We've got a fun one on deck Thursday as Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays head to Yankee Stadium to face CC Sabathia and the New York Yankees. New York's a slight home favorite to win the matchup (-105) with the total at 8.5.

    Pitching Matchup

    Archer's been fairly pedestrian this season, entering Thursday's matchup with an ERA of 3.77 and a 7-6 record. Good news for the Rays, though, is the fact that their bullpen is in the top third of the league with an overall ERA of 4.1. They've given up their fair share of bombs -- ranking No. 19 with 118 home runs -- to go along with an average of 8.4 hits per nine innings.

    Sabathia, with his 9-3 record and an ERA of 3.44, continues to shine when given the chance. He is 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA in his last three starts. Fun fact - Sabathia has allowed one run in 10 innings against the Rays this season. Teams are hitting just .208 against the Yankees bullpen. New York's bullpen is even better than Tampa Bay's, ranking No. 6 in the league in team ERA at 3.86.

    All of AccuScore Expert Baseball Picks

    Comparing the Numbers

    Tampa Bay is 24-26 on the road, with 26 of the 50 games going OVER the total, 22 staying UNDER, and two pushes. The Rays -- on average -- score 4.6 runs per game and give up 4.1.

    New York is 27-17 at home this season, with 25 of the 44 games going OVER, 18 staying UNDER, and one push. The Yankees are averaging approximately 5.3 runs per game while giving up 3.9.

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    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore

    While Vegas has the Yankees as slight favorites, AccuScore data ups that winning probability up to 61 percent. AccuScore sim data would have actually listed New York at a -155 on the money line, making the -105 they opened at fairly attractive.

    At the time of publication, New York is hovering between -115 and -120 on the money line in most books in Vegas.