Written by Pete Käenmäki

AC Milan vs. Juventus – Pirlo and Vidal out

On Saturday, reigning champions Juventus travel away to face Milan in the top fixture of the 3rd round in Serie A. Unfortunately, the Old Lady of Italian football will most likely be without two of its most influential midfielders: experienced artist Alessandro Pirlo and Chilean national Arturo Vidal.
What kind of influence will these absences have on the clash of heavyweights? Accuscore’s simulation engine tells us as Accuscore can use statistical models to calculate the true impact of both players.

Juventus – without Pirlo and Vidal

After 10,000 simulations Accuscore’s computer tells us that without Pirlo and Vidal Juventus will be slight favorites to beat home side Milan with a 42 percent probability to win the encounter and that La Vecchia Signora would average 0.80 goals on Saturday.

AccuScore has expert betting tips for this match & every other Serie A match: Serie A Expert Picks

Juventus – with Pirlo and Vidal

With Pirlo and Vidal, Juventus win the simulated match with a probability of 48 percent and would average 0.95 goals, which means a scoring increase of 18.6 percent with the dynamic duo than without.

The computer has also calculated probabilities for the duo to score, if they can miraculously gain match fitness by Saturday, Andrea Pirlo would have a 10.7 percent chance for Andrea Pirlo and Arturo Vidal has a 24/5 percent chance of finding the net.

With and without Vidal and Piro, Juventus is the most likely side to win in Milan. However, Accuscore’s computer calculates that the depleted midfield will adversely impact Juventus’ scoring ability.


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