The Art of Tanking

One of the biggest points of interest in the NHL regular season is the fierce battle of being the worst. In spite of playing for empty stands with minor league players after losing all hope of playoffs, there might still be light at the end of the tunnel. With the draft class of 2015 headlined by Conor McDavid and Jack Eichel, top two picks are worth tanking for, at least in Buffalo and Arizona.

Buffalo managed to get rid of four NHL caliber forwards and two young, promising goaltenders. Replacements include minor league players and two backup goalies, Anders Lindbäck and Chad Johnson.

In Arizona the fire-sale was as expected. Zbynek Michalek, Antoine Vermette and arguably the biggest name moved on the deadline, Keith Yandle all found new homes in contenders. Unlike the Sabres, the Coyotes acquired NHL-calibre replacements in Anthony Duclaire – who created a devastating duo with Coyote prospect Max Domi in the WJC 2015 – and John Moore, a former 1st round pick by the Blue Jackets who had fallen out of favor in Manhattan.

With AccuScore simulations we can step back and have a look what impact, if any, these deadline moves have in search for the golden pot at the end of the rainbow: 80% chance to land the 1st or 2nd Overall Draft Pick.

Before the trades:
Arizona Coyotes W 28 – L 47 – OTL 7 = 63 PTS

Buffalo Sabres W 25 – L 52 – OTL 5 = 55 PTS

And after the trades:
Arizona Coyotes W 26 – L 49 – OTL 7 = 59 PTS


Buffalo Sabres W 24 – L 53 – OTL 5 = 53 PTS

The Sabres seem to run out as winners to lose, and with their trade deadline changes made sure no one would stand in their way. Not even the usual suspect Edmonton Oilers, whose projected point total is 59, which would make it tied to second to last with Arizona. A lot of lucky losers here.

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