Written by AccuScore Staff
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Are the Denver Broncos Better without Peyton Manning?
Denver Broncos selected Brock Osweiler to start over banged up Peyton Manining on Sunday’s game against Chicago Bears. They’ll meet familiar face on the sideline as Broncos’ former head coach John Fox is now calling the shots for Bears.
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These teams have opposite trends: Denver has lost last two games after 7-0 start. Chicago has won 4 out of their last 6 games and have given a good fight for every point during these games. Two losses came with last seconds, so after a lousy start of the season Chicago’s trend is pointing upwards.
Sunday’s game will be first start for Brock Osweiler during his NFL career. So far he is a completely unproven commodity and predicting his performance is not the easiest task. Accuscore’s supercomputer doesn’t like his chances and predicts Chicago to win this game with 56% probability. Osweiler would complete less than 60% of his passes and his passing yards is predicted to be under 250.
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In Chicago there are many who are looking for a revenge from Denver. In addition to Fox, former offensive coordinator Adam Gates and former quarterback Jay Cutler are key members of Bears offense in their respective positions. Cutler’s performance during this season has been best of his career so far. It would be interesting to see how it continues against the top defense of Denver Broncos. Accuscore’s simulation predicts over 250 passing yards and QBR around 87 for Cutler.
How about Peyton Manning? Would Denver cruise to win if he would be healthy on the helm? To win yes, but not very comfortably. 10000 simulations of this game with Peyton Manning give Broncos just over 51% chance to win with point spread 1. Manning would complete passes with higher % and rack up over 260 passing yards based on predictions compared to Osweiler.
Betting lines have moved from -3.5 for Denver to current -1 for Chicago as a home favorite. Even though computer predicts tight game, many intangibles are favoring home team in this game.
