Four Mistakes the Casual Bettor Makes
”My dad often jokes, “if you could beat it, they wouldn’t offer the service.” While there is certainly truth to that statement, it is not entirely true. It is hard to be profitable when wagering on sports, but if the casual bettor could avoid easy traps, they might have a better chance.
Here are four (4) mistakes the casual better makes:
1. Don’t treat it as Investing AccuScore is in the sports information business where we use statistics to simulate games and player outcomes and player performances. The value of reliable information is endless and is the biggest catalyst in becoming successful in betting on sports.
At the end of the day, making a wager on sport is gambling. You are still putting your money on something to happen that you don’t have any control over. While you cant control the outcome of a play, you the casual bettor can access to information that will give you an edge in determining which side will win a game or cover a bet.
2. Wager on High Profile Teams/Players
Betting on a high profile team or name player for those reasons is a big mistake. A true sports investor might have a favorite team, but that should not influence where they put their money.
Vegas oddsmakers know that certain teams draw in the “sucker” money and because of that, they will usually provide you a “sucker” line. A sucker line is when Vegas will make a team a stronger favorite than they should be, because they know the casual bettor does not care and just wants to bet on a high profile team.
A true sports investor looks for the angles and finds teams that are profitable. Last year, Oklahoma State was not a high profile team, yet AccuScore went 11-1 in ATS selections that involved the Cowboys. On the flip side, the University of Texas has a tremendous following and oddsmakers continually made them favorites last year because they knew the public would lay the points because they are Texas.
3. Discipline Erodes as the Day Goes On Discipline erodes as the day goes on. A player has all week to handicap a college football Saturday and analyze the betting lines. During the same period, a player can also study AccuScore forecasting data, as well as find numerous other sources that can lead to finding an edge
A serious sports investor will make their day’s picks prior to the first game being played. By “setting and forgetting,” you will rely on your research, rather than emotion.
The average player has a hard time subscribing to this approach. They want action and will often find themselves pressing wins, or chasing losses. If the 7PM ESPN game did not look attractive to bet on when you analyzed it on Thursday, there is no reason you should be betting it at 6:45PM on Saturday.
If you are about having fun and spending a few bucks wagering on games, discipline does not matter. You might win in the short term, but it’s a vulnerable approach. A true sports investor must exercise discipline in their game picking process and not let it erode as the day goes on.
4. Don’t Stick to a System We have written many articles about the value of a system. A profitable system allows you to stay the course and limits the variance that comes with sports wagering.
Not sticking with a system is an extension of the third biggest mistake a gambler makes (see #3). It may sound like we are making sports wagering boring, but showing you how to avoid the most common leaks.
Most gamblers will panic if their bankroll sustains more than a 50% loss. While nobody ever hopes to post those returns, remember that the bankroll can still handle more losses and is the foundation to a strategy.
Often times, a player with a straight ATS or Totals strategy might begin making parlays if they are down (or in some cases up). Parlays are high risk and high reward and are bankroll killers. Sure parlays are fun, but if you are not investing in a purely “parlay system,” altering your course to make up losses is will most likely work against you and end up expediting the process.
Stick with your system. Trust your system, even on bad days. While it may be a grind, it will allow you to be focused and have the best chances of showing an overall return on your investment.