Written by Rohit Ghosh
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AFC South – 2016 NFL Division Preview
Indianapolis Colts
2015 was supposed to be the year for the Colts, but injuries to QB Andrew Luck amongst others led to an 8-8 season with concerns surrounding multiple units.
We know this team goes as Luck does, and keeping him healthy is key. They drafter Alabama center Ryan Kelly in the first round and that should be huge for an improved offensive line in 2016.
Khaled Holmes and Jonotthan Harrison were downright abysmal last year and Kelly stepping in should immediately improve the unit. - AccuScore expects Indy to win the AFC South - but not necessarily improve much as a whole. They still finish 8-8.
What do the sims say? No team in the AFC South wins more than 8 games in season sims; taking the UNDER on the Colts' line (9) is the safer bet.
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is one of the more interesting wagering opportunities this season, heading into 2016 with a strong second-year QB.
What do the sims say?
Their win total is listed at 7.5 in Vegas, and AccuScore data suggests taking the UNDER on that line. The Titans win 7.4 games on average in season sims, but the more important probability is their 24 percent chance of winning the division. With the Colts their main competition for the AFC South, Tennessee can take solace in knowing their offensive line is filled with first-round picks.
The unit has a lot of potential and if Mariota improves the way he should, the Titans could surprise some folks. If he's out though, at all, the UNDER is even more of a probability given the backup is QB Matt Cassel.
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Houston Texans
This division just features teams that were supposed to be better in 2015 and now enter 2016 with floating expectations. Houston once again has a strong roster - overall - but little confidence in its QB spot with Brock Osweiler leading the way.
It can't get worse than Brian Hoyer, so there's that, but with just 642 snaps in the NFL so far, Osweiler's lack of experience will be costly.
What do the sims say? Easy UNDER here in terms of AccuScore's standards. The line's set at 8.5 and Houston's projected to finish No. 3 in the division.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars' backs and receiving corp put together is a force in this league. T.J. Yeldon will improve on a nice rookie season on the ground, and the addition of Chris Ivory will only add more depth and consistency to that unit.
WRs Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns make up a WR unit that's easily top-five in the league. Throw in some production from TE Julius Thomas and the Jags offense will get rolling often.
A lack of consistency in the defensive front-seven and secondary - though - will ultimately cost them most of their games.
What do the sims say? The line's set at 7.5 and the Jags don't inch up past 7.0 wins in season sims.
