One NFL Sports Betting lines and using SportsGrid’s head statisticians’ model, we are going to take a look and see if there are any profitable Week One NFL sports betting lines.
Week One NFL Sports Betting Model Picks
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Tennessee Titans +5 @ Cleveland Browns
This line is fairly clearly based off of public positive sentiment towards the Cleveland Browns. They traded for Odell Beckham, Baker Mayfield is popular on social media and in general, the public is now Pro-Browns. However, the reality is that these teams are likely not five points off in true talent level. The Browns gained 5.8 yards per play last season and the Titans gained 5.3 while using Blaine Gabbert more than any NFL team should. The average Titans drive produced slightly more points than the average Browns drive. While Marcus Mariota is healthy, these teams project close enough that all three betting models point in favor of the Titans being able to cover five points on the road in Cleveland.
Arizona Cardinals PK @ Detroit Lions
Of all of these bets, this is the one I am most likely to tie my money into while the game is months away. The Detriot Lions are the exact opposite of an inspiring team. Detroit gave up the ninth most net adjusted yards per pass attempt on defense last season and we know that the Arizona Cardinals are going to be throwing early and often. The additions of Kyler Murray, Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and KeeSean Johnson is going to give the Arizona offense a much different dynamic then they had last season. No team ran more in between the tackles runs than the Cardinals last season despite how bad their team was. That is a stat that will not repeat in 2019 as the Cardinals run 90% of their offense out of the shotgun. I’m quite confident that the model is right in this selection in taking the Cardinals as a PK at home.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs Indianapolis Colts
Much like the Browns, the Colts have become a public darling over the course of the offseason. The job that Chris Ballard has done with the Colts roster is rather admirable but the Los Angeles Chargers are even better. The Chargers are tied for the second-best record by Las Vegas over/unders, gained the third most yards per play of any team in the NFL in 2018 and scored the sixth most points. The Colts added Devin Funchess and rookie Parris Campbell to their WR corp but overall, their roster is just marginally better than the one that got smoked by the Chiefs in the playoffs last year. The betting model has LAC -3 as the pick in all three facets and I agree.
MATTEK PICK: Denver Broncos +2.5 vs Oakland Raiders
This is where the good stuff happens! The model has the Raiders as the correct pick as a favorite against Denver on the road in Mile High but I am not buying it. The Broncos are historically successful at home to begin the year thanks to their altitude advantage. Per Justis Mosqueda, Since the AFL-NFL merger the Denver Broncos are 49-8-2 at home in games during the first two weeks of the season. The massive home advantage the Broncos generate due to training at altitude and playing their home games at altitude is almost immeasurable. Improved roster or not, this is a very tough spot for the Raiders and I am going the opposite way of the model.
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