Author: Daniel Dobish
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on the run line. Unfortunately, that was the only winner from yesterday’s picks, as Baltimore closer Zach Britton coughed up just his second blown save of the season to derail a win in Toronto. It’s time to get back on track.
- Marlins-Phillies (over 8 1/2)
The over has been a great play against Dan Straily of late since he gives up plenty of runs. AP Photo/Brett Davis
The Marlins and Phillies continue their series in the City of Brotherly Love, and both teams are playing out the string. Pitching hasn’t exactly been a hallmark for either side lately, and the lack of pitching success should continue at Citizens Bank Ball Park on Wednesday.
The over is 4-1-1 over Miami’s past six outings, and 8-3 in their past 11 road outings against a right-handed starter. In addition, Dan Straily has been no stranger to plenty of runs lately. The over is 8-2-1 in the past 11 starts overall by Straily, including 3-1-1 in the past five starts on the road. The over is 5-2-1 in the past eight for Philadelphia, too, and 8-3-1 across their past 12 at home vs. RHPs. While the ‘under’ has hit in six of Aaron Nola’s past eight at home, the over is still the play here.
The over is also 4-0 in Straily’s past four assignments against the Phillies while going 4-1 in Nola’s past five tries against the Fish. The over is also 4-1 in the past five meetings at The Vault.
- Rangers over Mariners (-110)
Martin Perez takes the ball looking to stay perfect in the month of September, and the Rangers have been on fire with him on the mound lately. He is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA with a season-low .268 batting average against in the month, and he has picked up eight of his 12 wins since the All-Star break. In addition, he is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA over 16.1 innings in three outings against the Mariners this season.
Texas is 7-0 over the past seven outings by Perez, and 4-0 in his past four home starts. The Rangers are also 4-0 in the past four outings by Perez against American League West foes. Texas has also won 20 of their past 27 at home against teams with a losing record and Perez on the bump. The Mariners have dropped six of their past seven on the road, so solving Perez will be a huge test.
- Diamondbacks over Rockies (-150)
The Diamondbacks are moderate favorites, looking to bounce back after falling to Jon Gray and the Rox on Tuesday. Back is Patrick Corbin, who has been on fire since the break. He is 7-3 with a 3.34 ERA over 11 starts since the All-Star break, striking out 66 across 67.1 innings. Corbin just topped the Rockies on Sept. 2 at Coors Field, allowing two runs – one earned – and two hits over 5.1 innings in a victory.
It will be a tall order cooling off the Rockies, but Corbin should be up to the task. Arizona is 10-4 over Corbin’s past 14 starts at home, and 5-1 in his past six outings overall. On the flip side, the Rockies are just 3-7 over German Marquez’s past 10 outings.
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