Author: Daniel Dobish
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it’s of my opinion you should focus on two or three conferences and really concentrates on those teams and trends. It’s difficult to know all of the ins and outs of 100-plus teams, especially over the course of a three-month slate.
1. Old Dominion vs. Massachusetts (Over 60 1/2)
Nebraska wide receiver JD Spielman (10) makes a touchdown catch. AP Photo/Nati Harnik
Massachusetts was tripped up by Coastal Carolina last week by a team making its FBS debut. That setback comes on the heels of a loss at home to Hawaii. In each of the losses the Minutemen allowed 38 points, while averaging a respectable 31.5 points per game (PPG). In other words, each of their first two games have been track meets with little defense standing in the way.
The Monarchs of ODU opened with a difficult FCS opponent, but eventually gained separation against UAlbany for a 31-17 victory. They held a 24-3 advantage heading into the fourth quarter, and their rush defense looked good by allowing just 2.8 yards per attempt. However, ODU will be tested way more by a somewhat effective Minutemen pass offense. These teams met in the Tidewater last year, and ODU posted 36 points. While that game just missed the over due to some offensive struggles by UMass, the over is 7-1 in eight games since for the Minutemen as the defensive woes continue.
2. Central Michigan over Kansas (+6)
Central Michigan struggled in its opener against FCS Rhode Island, needing extra sessions before putting away the Rams in Mount Pleasant. Now, they’ll head down to Lawrence looking to improve to 2-0. The Jayhawks were also successful in their opener, pushing aside Southeast Missouri State. However, wins against FBS opponents have been rare for Kansas in recent seasons, and two-game win streaks even rarer for Rock Chalk.
Kansas put the final nail in Charlie Strong’s Texas coffin last season with a 24-21 overtime win on Nov. 19, but that was their first win against an FBS opponent in over two years. It has been even longer since the Jayhawks pieced together back-to-back wins, topping McNeese State and Northern Illinois to open the 2011 regular season. Not only are the Chippewas an attractive play with the points, but they’re not a bad option for some light action on the moneyline (+190).
3. Nebraska over Oregon (+14)
The Cornhuskers pushed aside a pesky Arkansas State side in Lincoln last weekend, but failed to hit the number. Meanwhile, the Ducks were untested in their traditional cupcake opener against a weak FCS side. This time it was Southern Utah taking the brunt, dropping a 77-21 decision at Autzen Stadium. Is that result really enough to erase the memory of a 4-8 SU/2-9-1 ATS campaign from the Ducks in 2016?
Nebraska topped Oregon 35-32 in Lincoln in a memorable finish, pushing on a three-point line as road ‘dogs at most shops. So perhaps Vegas is factoring in revenge into Saturday’s line. However, Oregon being two touchdown favorites seems out of bounds considering their struggles against the number. In a similar spot they were dropped 41-38 at home on Sept. 24, 2016 as 14-point favorites against Colorado, and Oregon was just 1-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in 2016. If Joey Public somehow is able to push this line up to 14 and a hook, this should be your best bet for the weekend as far as the college slate is concerned.
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