Author: Jake Ciely, Senior Writer
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a high-scoring option on your bench. I developed it years ago, and it accounts for defensive quality of play by position, adjusts for game situations and strength of offenses and spits out an adjusted Fantasy Points allowed. Using Fantasy Football Points allowed is valuable in itself to help make lineup decisions, but it’s imperfect, as a team facing Carson Wentz should give up more points and passing yards than one facing Joe Flacco every week. This isn’t a tool to argue benching Mike Evans for Terrance Williams, but it helps you decide which RB3 is a better play or which WR4 could put up a WR2 type Week 10.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Matchup Rankings
QB Matchup Rankings
Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD | | Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD |
---|
1 | San Francisco 49ers | NYG | 24.1 | | 15 | Cleveland Browns | DET | 14.5 |
2 | Seattle Seahawks | ARI | 23.8 | | 16 | New Orleans Saints | BUF | 14.1 |
3 | New York Giants | SAF | 23.4 | | 17 | Arizona Cardinals | SEA | 13.3 |
4 | Los Angeles Rams | HOU | 23.3 | | 18 | Cincinnati Bengals | TEN | 13.0 |
5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NYJ | 21.7 | | 19 | Tennessee Titans | CIN | 12.9 |
6 | Denver Broncos | NE | 21.3 | | 20 | Buffalo Bills | NO | 12.8 |
7 | New York Jets | TB | 20.1 | | 21 | New England Patriots | DEN | 12.7 |
8 | Chicago Bears | GB | 19.9 | | 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | LAC | 11.5 |
9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | IND | 19.1 | | 23 | Miami Dolphins | CAR | 10.7 |
10 | Atlanta Falcons | DAL | 17.8 | | 24 | Houston Texans | LAR | 10.4 |
11 | Minnesota Vikings | WSH | 17.6 | | 25 | Green Bay Packers | CHI | 9.6 |
12 | Detroit Lions | CLE | 17.3 | | 26 | Washington Redskins | MIN | 9.5 |
13 | Dallas Cowboys | ATL | 16.1 | | 27 | Indianapolis Colts | PIT | 9.3 |
14 | Carolina Panthers | MIA | 15.2 | | 28 | Los Angeles Chargers | JAX | 6.6 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Philip Rivers
There is a good chance that the Buccaneers offense is better with Fitzpatrick than it was with Jameis Winston. If nothing else, Winston’s injury was sapping his ability the past few games. Fitzpatrick isn’t afraid to sling it and has made his receivers Fantasy viable throughout his career. On his own, Fitzpatrick has several seasons averaging 16-plus points per game and hit 16-plus in every game but one as recently as 2015. Yes, the loss of Mike Evans hurts (suspension), but when it comes to streaming options, you could do much worse, such as the next quarterback.
That quarterback is Rivers. The Chargers can come out of the bye fired up if they want to, but it will matter little for the passing game. It doesn’t get any worse than this when it comes to matchups, as the Jaguars have a league-best 6.6 quarterback FPAD. With how strong the Steelers are against the pass, they are second at 9.3. Not one quarterback has topped 14 Fantasy points against the Jaguars, and they have allowed just four passing touchdowns all year. Forget about Rivers this week.
Also Good:Jared Goff – He’s not a great quarterback, but he’s improved and Sean McVay is a master when it comes to fixing the Rams offense.
Also Bad:Jay Cutler – Bad Cutler can show up any week, and a matchup with the Panthers points to this being one of them.
Other Matchup Boosted QBs: Russell Wilson, Eli Manning, Josh McCown, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan
RB Matchup Rankings
Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD | | Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD |
---|
1 | New York Giants | SAF | 32.4 | | 15 | Buffalo Bills | NO | 17.0 |
2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | IND | 26.5 | | 16 | Atlanta Falcons | DAL | 16.3 |
3 | New York Jets | TB | 26.0 | | 17 | New Orleans Saints | BUF | 15.8 |
4 | Chicago Bears | GB | 24.4 | | 18 | Tennessee Titans | CIN | 15.7 |
5 | San Francisco 49ers | NYG | 21.6 | | 19 | Carolina Panthers | MIA | 14.7 |
6 | Minnesota Vikings | WSH | 21.2 | | 20 | Indianapolis Colts | PIT | 14.3 |
7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | LAC | 20.9 | | 21 | Cincinnati Bengals | TEN | 13.6 |
8 | Dallas Cowboys | ATL | 20.7 | | 22 | New England Patriots | DEN | 12.7 |
9 | Cleveland Browns | DET | 20.5 | | 23 | Los Angeles Chargers | JAX | 12.5 |
10 | Green Bay Packers | CHI | 20.0 | | 24 | Detroit Lions | CLE | 12.2 |
11 | Denver Broncos | NE | 20.0 | | 25 | Arizona Cardinals | SEA | 12.2 |
12 | Houston Texans | LAR | 19.1 | | 26 | Washington Redskins | MIN | 11.2 |
13 | Seattle Seahawks | ARI | 18.1 | | 27 | Los Angeles Rams | HOU | 10.9 |
14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NYJ | 17.1 | | 28 | Miami Dolphins | CAR | 10.4 |
Orleans Darkwa vs. Rob Kelley
Kupp could have a Robert Woods-like performance this week. AP Photo/Matt Dunham
Darkwa has been surprising us for a few weeks now, especially that performance we saw against the Broncos. Darkwa is a decent running back who runs where he’s told, but that can be a problem if the line isn’t getting a push or opening holes. Fortunately, the Giants offensive line has been playing better of late (one of the few bright spots), and they continue to use Darkwa as the lead option. If the game were to get out of hand, we would see much less of Darkwa, but it’s the 49ers. Not only do they have the highest RB FPAD by far, but they have so many offensive issues that they shouldn’t have the lead for most of the game. A close game and porous defense means plenty of opportunities for Darkwa.
As for Kelley, don’t count on him scoring two touchdowns again. In fact, one is a stretch, as the Vikings defense is among the best in the league. They have allowed just two rushing touchdowns all season, and only three running backs have reached double-digit Non-PPR points. Kelley had just 18 yards last week, which marked his third straight game with fewer than 20 yards rushing. Yea, good luck using Kelley against the Vikings. Chasing touchdowns can lead to trouble, especially with a running back that rarely gains yards and a defense that rarely gives them up.
Also Good:Matt Forte or Bilal Powell – Forte has become a trustworthy RB3 at this point, but if he is out (knee), Powell will be in the RB2 conversation.
Also Bad:Damien Williams – Kenyan Drake is clearly the better talent, and the Panthers are the toughest matchup, making it unlikely for both to have value.
Other Matchup Boosted RBs: Le’Veon Bell, Jordan Howard, Carlos Hyde, Jerick McKinnon, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott?
WR Matchup Rankings
Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD | | Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD |
---|
1 | Seattle Seahawks | ARI | 30.7 | | 15 | New Orleans Saints | BUF | 18.3 |
2 | Chicago Bears | GB | 30.3 | | 16 | Jacksonville Jaguars | LAC | 18.1 |
3 | Los Angeles Rams | HOU | 29.5 | | 17 | Detroit Lions | CLE | 17.5 |
4 | Denver Broncos | NE | 29.5 | | 18 | Minnesota Vikings | WSH | 15.7 |
5 | New York Jets | TB | 28.4 | | 19 | Cincinnati Bengals | TEN | 15.3 |
6 | San Francisco 49ers | NYG | 28.1 | | 20 | Buffalo Bills | NO | 15.3 |
7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | IND | 27.4 | | 21 | Miami Dolphins | CAR | 14.7 |
8 | Atlanta Falcons | DAL | 26.6 | | 22 | Tennessee Titans | CIN | 14.1 |
9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NYJ | 25.4 | | 23 | Green Bay Packers | CHI | 13.4 |
10 | Arizona Cardinals | SEA | 25.4 | | 24 | Washington Redskins | MIN | 12.9 |
11 | Cleveland Browns | DET | 23.7 | | 25 | Indianapolis Colts | PIT | 12.8 |
12 | New York Giants | SAF | 21.5 | | 26 | Houston Texans | LAR | 12.1 |
13 | Dallas Cowboys | ATL | 19.6 | | 27 | New England Patriots | DEN | 10.8 |
14 | Carolina Panthers | MIA | 18.5 | | 28 | Los Angeles Chargers | JAX | 10.3 |
Cooper Kupp vs. Will Fuller
Interesting stat for you: Kupp leads the league with 15 red zone targets. With Jared Goff and this offense clicking, a matchup with the Texans weak defense is a pretty sight. It’s becoming a bit tricky to pick between the three Rams receivers at this point, but there are two factors working in Kupp’s favor. First, the aforementioned red zone targets are significantly more than Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins targets. Second, the Texans high 29.5 FPAD is carried by their specific inability to stop slot receivers. Kareem Jackson has been one of the worst corners and will cover Kupp a good amount. Look for Kupp to take advantage.
Not surprisingly, quarterback play can greatly affect receiver performance. No more Deshaun Watson means no more Fuller value. It would have been a tough matchup to begin with on the other side of the Rams matchup, as only the Broncos and Jaguars have lower FPADs. Fuller is a big play receiver with a quarterback that struggles to make them. On top of that, the Rams allow just 6.8 YPC. You will need to find another option in Week 10.
Also Good:Demaryius Thomas – If playing, the one good thing about Brock Osweiler is that he peppers DmT with targets.
Also Bad:Tyrell Williams – You don’t want to start Rivers, so why would you risk any of his receivers outside of Keenan Allen?
Other Matchup Boosted WRs: Doug Baldwin, Robby Anderson, Marquise Goodwin, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, DeSean Jackson
TE Matchup Rankings
Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD | | Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD |
---|
1 | San Francisco 49ers | NYG | 15.9 | | 15 | New York Giants | SAF | 6.8 |
2 | New England Patriots | DEN | 15.1 | | 16 | Arizona Cardinals | SEA | 6.6 |
3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NYJ | 13.5 | | 17 | Cincinnati Bengals | TEN | 6.3 |
4 | Detroit Lions | CLE | 11.9 | | 18 | New York Jets | TB | 5.9 |
5 | Minnesota Vikings | WSH | 11.2 | | 19 | Atlanta Falcons | DAL | 5.8 |
6 | Los Angeles Rams | HOU | 11.2 | | 20 | Houston Texans | LAR | 5.4 |
7 | New Orleans Saints | BUF | 10.8 | | 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | JAX | 5.3 |
8 | Carolina Panthers | MIA | 10.1 | | 22 | Washington Redskins | MIN | 5.0 |
9 | Seattle Seahawks | ARI | 9.2 | | 23 | Dallas Cowboys | ATL | 4.9 |
10 | Cleveland Browns | DET | 8.7 | | 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars | LAC | 4.8 |
11 | Tennessee Titans | CIN | 8.2 | | 25 | Buffalo Bills | NO | 4.7 |
12 | Pittsburgh Steelers | IND | 7.9 | | 26 | Green Bay Packers | CHI | 4.6 |
13 | Denver Broncos | NE | 7.5 | | 27 | Indianapolis Colts | PIT | 4.5 |
14 | Miami Dolphins | CAR | 7.4 | | 28 | Chicago Bears | GB | 3.1 |
Kyle Rudolph vs. Hunter Henry
This is a bit more DFS slanted, as if you have a capable tight end at this point, you’re starting him. Even with Jack Doyle facing the Steelers, who could you possibly bench him for? Coby Fleener? C’mon buddy. The Redskins have quietly crept near the top of the tight end matchups with an 11.2 FPAD. Even with a banged up Jimmy Graham last week, the Redskins still let him finish with 59 yards and Luke Willson to catch a 10-yard touchdown. Rudolph has been freed since Dalvin Cook was lost for the season and has 50.2 PPR points in the last four games.
With Henry, there is always a chance that he finds the end zone, but adding Mike Williams to the number of options for Rivers muddies the picture even more. There are seven legitimate receiving options for Rivers with Williams, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, Henry, Antonio Gates and Melvin Gordon out of the backfield. While Gates has fallen back, Henry’s two-reception, 11-yard game against the Patriots shows his risk. The Jaguars are strong against the tight end as well with just one Non-PPR double-digit game allowed and four in PPR (two of which came with a touchdown). Henry is a significant risk.
Other Matchup Boosted TEs: Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, Eric Ebron, Jimmy Graham
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