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Do you bench your Flex running back because of a tough matchup? The purpose of Hold ‘Em or Fold ‘Em is to help you with the tough toss-up decisions. Tired of seeing points waste away on your bench? Good! That’s what this weekly article aims to prevent.

Reminder: Fantasy Points Adjusted for Defense (FPAD) is a calculation that can be the difference between celebrating a win or cursing a high-scoring option on your bench. I developed it years ago, and it accounts for defensive quality of play by position, adjusts for game situations and strength of offenses and spits out an adjusted Fantasy Points allowed. Using Fantasy Football Points allowed is valuable in itself to help make lineup decisions, but it’s imperfect, as a team facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers should give up more points and passing yards than one facing Jared Goff and the Rams. This isn’t a tool to argue benching Odell Beckham for Robert Woods, but it helps you decide which RB3 is a better play or which WR4 could put up a WR2 type week.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Matchup Rankings

Sam Bradford vs. Andy Dalton

This Bradford recommendation is valuable for more than one reason now that the Buccaneers-Dolphins game has been postponed and moved to Week 11. Jameis Winston owners are in a bind, and Bradford is a terrific solution. Carson Palmer is another strong option and has a great first five games for those looking for a more long-term option (Andrew Luck owners). As for Bradford though, I already mentioned him in the sleeper section of the Week 1 rankings piece, and will double down here. Not only did Bradford come up big against several weak defenses last year, but the Saints allow the fifth most FPAD for quarterbacks (19.6).

With Dalton, the idea of a healthy A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert is enticing, but the Ravens defense is still a strong group and allows just 14.5 FPAD to quarterbacks. Over the last three seasons, Dalton only has one game with more than one passing touchdown with three touchdowns in the four games outside of that three-TD performance. In addition, the Ravens held seven quarterbacks under 17 Fantasy points last year including nine passing for zero or one touchdowns. Dalton isn’t the worst option for Winston or Luck owners; he’s just not as good as Bradford.

Other Matchup Boosted QBs: Ben Roethlisberger (maybe, it is the road), Carson Palmer, Derek Carr, Cam Newton

C.J. Anderson vs. Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick

Anderson may have disppointed in the past, but Week 1 matchup rankings suggest he’ll impress. Photo by Samuel Stringer/Icon Sportswire

Yes, Anderson has burned owners time and again. The excuses of poor offensive line and injuries eventually become repetitive, and even I cut the cord with CJA last year. However, people can change and so can football players. As of today, Anderson has little competition with Devontae Booker out with an injury and Jamaal Charles now a change of pace option in the passing game. Anderson has no more excuses, and he definitely can’t blame the matchup in Week 1. The Chargers allow the fifth highest FPAD (21.5) and ranking inside the Top 5 for most rushing touchdowns, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns for running backs. Ride that pony!

No team ranks as a more difficult matchup for running backs than the Cardinals do. Not only does that hurt Abdullah, it especially dings Riddick, as the Cardinals allowed the fewest receiving yards for running backs last year at 385, 81 yards less than the next closest team. Only one running back topped 100 rushing yards last year against the Cardinals, and not one hit double-digit points without finding the end zone. So, yea, if you start Abdullah or Riddick, you’re hoping one reaches the end zone. Having no Jay Ajayi or Jacquizz Rodgers might force you into this situation, but do your best to avoid it.

Other Matchup Boosted RBs: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Le’Veon Bell, Jordan Howard, Bilal Powell, DeMarco Murray, Todd Gurley, Devonta Freeman

Stefon Diggs vs. Tyrell Williams

I can’t believe owners are actually debating whether or not to start Diggs. I actually am surprised that every Diggs owner wasn’t simply planning on putting him in the lineup every week without much thought. After all, Diggs had 84 receptions and 903 yards in less than 13 games last year with Bradford in his first season for the Vikings. Now Diggs faces the woeful Saints defense, which is part of a team that will put up plenty of points offensively. That means Diggs should have no problem finding space and racking up the receptions, as the Vikings will need to be more aggressive than usual in order to keep up. Last year, 14 receivers hit the double-digit mark against the Saints, and that amount jumps to 26 in PPR. Lock Diggs in that lineup.

Conversely, things don’t get any worse for receivers than facing the Broncos secondary. They have the lowest FPAD, and it’s more than two points lower than the second place Vikings. Yes, the Chargers were without Keenan Allen last year, but that gave way to Williams’ breakout and is an indictment on his having just three catches for 28 yards in the first matchup and one catch for four yards on six targets the second time. Philip Rivers had 29 and 47 targets in the two Broncos matchup with only 10 and 23 going to receivers in each, respectively. Rivers is reluctant to find his receivers (or maybe he just can’t) against the Broncos, and with the way that defense plays, it’s understandable. Allen is the only Chargers receiver I’d start, and I don’t feel comfortable even saying that.

Other Matchup Boosted WRs: Doug Baldwin, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Adam Thielen, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Kelvin Benjamin, Kevin White, Larry Fitzgerald

Zach Ertz vs. Eric Ebron

This may seem high-level for your team, but it’s Week 1, and you shouldn’t be getting too cute. Ertz already had his arrow pointing up after the Jordan Matthews trade. Now, Ertz is free to absorb the majority of midfield work… and show up before December. The Redskins also happen to struggle against tight ends with a high FPAD of 9.0, including a game where they let Ertz haul 13 targets in for 10 receptions and 112 yards last year.  Ertz was actually one of three tight ends that the Redskins let top 100 receiving yards (Tyler Eifert and Jared Cook). Opponents can exploit the Redskins weakness against tight ends, and Ertz is the perfect option to do so immediately.

Ebron’s time will come this year, as the man had 61 catches and 711 yards in 13 games last year. Positive touchdown regression was already in store for Ebron, as 711 yards and just one touchdown is tough to do. With Anquan Boldin’s 23 red zone targets gone, Ebron should find the end zone more in 2017… just not in Week 1. The Cardinals gave up two tight end touchdowns last year with not one tight end topping five catches and/or 53 yards. Save Ebron for future weeks where possible.

Other Matchup Boosted TEs: Greg Olsen, Charles Clay, Austin Hooper, Kyle Rudolph, Jason Witten, Coby Fleener

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