Author: Matt Rumack
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Par 5 Birdie or Better %
History at Deutsche Bank Championship
Anchors (10K<)
Dustin Johnson ($12,000) & Jordan Spieth ($12,100)
Rory McIlroy has not played great lately but TPC Boston is his favorite course. AP Photo/Chuck Burton
In my opinion, there are two ways to start your lineup. You take either Dustin Johnson or Jordan Spieth to start your lineup, or you go with one or two players in the 9K range. Johnson and Spieth have been the best players of the 2017 PGA Tour season. They proved last week that they each have a gear that can’t be matched by the rest of their peers. Together DJ & Spieth have combined for 18 Top 10s, six wins, and three runner-up finishes. They each rank in the Top 5 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and they are Top 15 in birdie or better percentage on Par 5s. Picking either of these guys at the top will leave you looking for some lower priced players to fill out your lineup. Or you can go with a more balanced approach with…
Second Tier Starters ($9,000-9,900)
Rory McIlroy ($9,800) & Rickie Fowler ($9,700)
You can start your team off with either one or both players and it’s a pretty good bargain considering you wouldn’t be forced to purchase players below 7K even if you roster both of them. These two make up for three of the last five victories at TPC Boston. Rory McIlroy was looking great earlier in August, but has cooled off as of late. Forget his recent finishes because this is McIlroy’s favorite course to play other than perhaps Quail Hollow. He has two wins here in 2012 and 2016 and a T-5 finish to go along in 2014. Rickie Fowler checks both boxes having won this tournament in 2015 along with playing very good golf leading up to this week. He’s finished in the top 25 in his last seven events started with five of those finishes being inside the top 10.
Mid Tier ($7,500-$8,900)
Paul Casey ($8,900), Charley Hoffman ($8,300), ($8,200) Webb Simpson, Adam Scott ($7,900)
Paul Casey comes in having not finished outside of the top 13 since the U.S Open. He’s ranked seventh on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 16th in Par 4 Birdie %. Casey also has had recent success here finishing runner-up to McIlroy last year. He’s due for a win that may never come, but for fantasy purposes we’ll take a guy who hasn’t finished outside the top 13 since June. Charley Hoffman is a popular pick this week. He’s proven that he can play well in deep fields this year and he’s a previous champion at TPC Boston (2010). It’s been Hoffman’s best season of his career, and this has been one of his favorite courses. Webb Simpson has had a revival season ranking 14th in the FedEx cup currently. He comes in swinging a hot stick finishing 3rd and T-6 in the last two weeks and he’s another previous champion here (2011). Adam Scott hasn’t played his greatest golf as of late, but he hasn’t played bad either. He’s still made nine of his last ten cuts, and at $7,900, this is the lowest price Scott has been available for all year. He’s yet another previous winner here winning the inaugural tournament here in 2003.
Sleepers (7,500K>)
Patrick Cantlay ($7,200), Jhonattan Vegas ($7,000), Francesco Molinari ($6,900), Kyle Stanley ($6,900), Ian Poulter ($6,900)
Patrick Cantlay has very quietly been on the of the best rookies this season. Each week despite playing new course after new course, he finds a way to make the cut and stay in respectable position through the weekend. If he played enough rounds to be ranked, he’d be right around the top 15 on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Jhonny Vegas, is the definition of a guy with boom-or-bust value. He’ll win one week, and then shoot a pair of 78s the next. However, he’s coming off a week where the only two players to outplay him cost 12K or more. Vegas is one of the best par 5 players on Tour, ranking 16th in Par 5 birdie or better %. He also ranks inside the top 30 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Francesco Molinari is one of the most accurate players on Tour. The only players that outrank him in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green are Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy. Molinari showed what he’s capable of finishing 2nd in the PGA Championship earlier in August, and his accuracy should give him a leg-up this week. Kyle Stanley is another Tee-to-Green master ranking ninth on Tour in that category. He also ranks inside the top 30 in Par 4 and 5 birdie %. Stanley has had a great bounceback year and has the chance to make it complete by playing his way into the Tour Championship. He currently is 19th in FedEx Cup points. Ian Poulter is the sneaky sleeper of the week here. Before finishing 66th last week, Poulter was playing great golf with four straight top 25 finishes. His last three starts at TPC Boston he finished T-33, T-23, and T-9. The former Ryder Cupper is eyeing a big week this week to give him a chance to make it into the top 30.
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